Determinants of Sexual Network Structure and Their Impact on Cumulative Network Measures

Abstract

There are four major quantities that are measured in sexual behavior surveys that are thought to be especially relevant for the performance of sexual network models in terms of disease transmission. These are (i) the cumulative distribution of lifetime number of partners, (ii) the distribution of partnership durations, (iii) the distribution of gap lengths between partnerships, and (iv) the number of recent partners. Fitting a network model to these quantities as measured in sexual behavior surveys is expected to result in a good description of Chlamydia trachomatis transmission in terms of the heterogeneity of the distribution of infection in the population. Here we present a simulation model of a sexual contact network, in which we explored the role of behavioral heterogeneity of simulated individuals on the ability of the model to reproduce population-level sexual survey data from the Netherlands and UK. We find that a high level of heterogeneity in the ability of individuals to acquire and maintain (additional) partners strongly facilitates the ability of the model to accurately simulate the powerlaw-like distribution of the lifetime number of partners, and the age at which these partnerships were accumulated, as surveyed in actual sexual contact networks. Other sexual network features, such as the gap length between partnerships and the partnership duration, could–at the current level of detail of sexual survey data against which they were compared–be accurately modeled by a constant value (for transitional concurrency) and by exponential distributions (for partnership duration). Furthermore, we observe that epidemiological measures on disease prevalence in survey data can be used as a powerful tool for building accurate sexual contact networks, as these measures provide information on the level of mixing between individuals of different levels of sexual activity in the population, a parameter that is hard to acquire through surveying individuals.

Author Summary

Although many diseases spread so easily between humans that someone could be infected by any of his or her daily social contacts, such is not the case for sexually transmitted diseases. Most of us have a very limited number of concurrently ongoing sexual partnerships, and thus the contact network over which sexually transmitted diseases spread tends to be very sparsely connected. The exact structure of these sexual networks plays an important role in how easy and fast sexually transmitted diseases spread through a population, and how effective various health care interventions will be. In this paper we use a simulation model to understand how the collective sexual behaviour of individuals relates to the summary measures of network structure (such as “lifetime number of partners”, and “duration of previous partnership”) that are typically used to build models of disease transmission over sexual networks. Based on our understanding of this relationship, we simulated sexual networks which have summary measures of network structure that are very similar to that of a real sexual network. Using these networks in disease transmission models will increase our ability to predict the effectiveness of health care interventions.