Predicting Unobserved Phenotypes for Complex Traits from Whole-Genome SNP Data

Abstract

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for quantitative traits and disease in humans and other species have shown that there are many loci that contribute to the observed resemblance between relatives. GWAS to date have mostly focussed on discovery of genes or regulatory regions habouring causative polymorphisms, using single SNP analyses and setting stringent type-I error rates. Genome-wide marker data can also be used to predict genetic values and therefore predict phenotypes. Here, we propose a Bayesian method that utilises all marker data simultaneously to predict phenotypes. We apply the method to three traits: coat colour, %CD8 cells, and mean cell haemoglobin, measured in a heterogeneous stock mouse population. We find that a model that contains both additive and dominance effects, estimated from genome-wide marker data, is successful in predicting unobserved phenotypes and is significantly better than a prediction based upon the phenotypes of close relatives. Correlations between predicted and actual phenotypes were in the range of 0.4 to 0.9 when half of the number of families was used to estimate effects and the other half for prediction. Posterior probabilities of SNPs being associated with coat colour were high for regions that are known to contain loci for this trait. The prediction of phenotypes using large samples, high-density SNP data, and appropriate statistical methodology is feasible and can be applied in human medicine, forensics, or artificial selection programs.

Author Summary

Results from recent genome-wide association studies indicate that for most complex traits, there are many loci that contribute to variation in observed phenotype and that the effect of a single variant (single nucleotide polymorphism, SNP) on a phenotype is small. Here, we propose a method that combines the effects of multiple SNPs to make a prediction of a phenotype that has not been observed. We apply the method to data on mice, using phenotypic and genomic data from some individuals to predict phenotypes in other, either related or unrelated, individuals. We find that correlations between predicted and actual phenotypes are in the range of 0.4 to 0.9. The method also shows that the SNPs used in the prediction appear in regions that are known to contain genes associated with the traits studied. The prediction of unobserved phenotypes from high-density SNP data and appropriate statistical methodology is feasible and can be applied in human medicine, forensics, or artificial breeding programs.