Reverse Epidemiology: A Spurious Hypothesis or a Hardcore Reality?

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Abstract

In maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients, associations between demographic, clinical and laboratory values and mortality, including cardiovascular death, are significantly different and, in some cases, in the opposite direction of those derived from the general population. This phenomenon, termed ‘reverse epidemiology’, is not limited to MHD patients but is also observed in populations that encompass an estimated 20 million Americans including those with an advanced age, heart failure, malignancies, and AIDS. A significant portion of this reversal may be due to the overwhelming effect of the malnutrition-inflammation complex syndrome (MICS). Since two thirds of MHD patients die within 5 years of initiation of dialysis treatment, traditional cardiovascular risk factors such as obesity, hypercholesterolemia and hypertension cannot exert a long-term deleterious impact, and instead, their short-term beneficial effects on MICS provides a survival advantage. In order to improve survival and quality of life in MHD patients, extrapolated ideal norms derived from the general population should be substituted with novel norms obtained from outcome-oriented epidemiologic analyses while accounting for the differential effect of MICS in different case-mix subgroups.

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Most cited references 32

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Endotoxin and immune activation in chronic heart failure: a prospective cohort study.

J Niebauer, H. Volk, M. Kemp … (1999)

Immune activation in patients with chronic heart failure may be secondary to endotoxin (lipopolysaccharide) action. We investigated the hypothesis that altered gut permeability with bacterial translocation and endotoxaemia would be increased in patients with oedema secondary to congestive heart failure. We compared 20 patients who had chronic heart failure with recent-onset peripheral oedema (mean age 64 years [SD 10], New York Heart Association [NYHA] class 3.3 [0.7]), 20 stable non-oedematous patients with chronic heart failure (mean age 63 years [19], NYHA class 2.6 [0.7]), and 14 healthy volunteers (mean age 55 years [16]). Biochemical markers of endotoxaemia, inflammation, and immune activation were measured. Ten patients were studied within 1 week of complete resolution of oedema. Five patients survived longer than 6 months and were restudied again after remaining free of oedema for more than 3 months. Mean endotoxin concentrations were higher in oedematous patients with chronic heart failure than in stable patients with chronic heart failure (0.74 [SD 0.45] vs 0.37 EU/mL [0.23], p=0.0009) and controls (0.46 EU/mL [0.21], p=0.02). Oedematous patients had the highest concentrations of several cytokines. After short-term diuretic treatment, endotoxin concentrations decreased from 0.84 EU/mL [0.49] to 0.45 EU/mL [0.21], p<0.05) but cytokines remained raised. After freedom of oedema for more than 3 months after oedema resolved, endotoxin concentrations remained unchanged from the previous visit (0.49 EU/mL [0.06], p=0.45). Raised concentrations of endotoxin and cytokines are found in patients with chronic heart failure during acute oedematous exacerbation. Intensified diuretic treatment can normalise endotoxin concentrations. Our preliminary findings suggest that endotoxin may trigger immune activation in patients with chronic heart failure during oedematous episodes.

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Reverse epidemiology of conventional cardiovascular risk factors in patients with chronic heart failure.

Gregg C. Fonarow, TAMARA HORWICH, Gladys Block … (2004)

Traditional risk factors of a poor clinical outcome and mortality in the general population, including body mass index (BMI), serum cholesterol, and blood pressure (BP), are also found to relate to outcome in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF), but in an opposite direction. Obesity, hypercholesterolemia, and high values of BP have been demonstrated to be associated with greater survival among CHF patients. These findings are in contrast to the well-known associations of over-nutrition, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertension with a poor outcome in the general population. The association between traditional cardiovascular risk factors and an adverse clinical outcome in CHF patients is referred to as "reverse epidemiology." The mechanisms for this inverse association in CHF is not clear. There are other populations with a similar risk factor reversal phenomenon, including patients with end-stage renal disease receiving dialysis, those with advanced malignancies, and individuals with advanced age. Several possible causes are hypothesized: the time discrepancy of the competing risk factors may play a role; the presence of the "malnutrition-inflammation complex syndrome" in CHF patients may explain the existence of reverse epidemiology; and a decreased level of lipoprotein molecules may distort their endotoxin-scavenging role, predisposing CHF patients with a low serum cholesterol level to inflammatory consequences of endotoxemia. It is possible that new goals for such traditional risk factors as BMI, serum cholesterol, and BP should be developed for CHF. Reverse epidemiology of conventional cardiovascular risk factors is observed in CHF and may have a bearing on the management of these patients; thus, it deserves further investigation.

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Factors predicting malnutrition in hemodialysis patients: a cross-sectional study.

A Alvestrand, J. Bergström, B. Lindholm … (1998)

Signs of protein-energy malnutrition are common in maintenance hemodialysis (HD) patients and are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. To evaluate the nutritional status and relationship between various parameters used for assessing malnutrition, we performed a cross-sectional study in 128 unselected patients treated with hemodialysis (HD) thrice weekly for at least two weeks. Global nutritional status was evaluated by the subjective global nutritional assessment (SGNA). Body weight, skinfold thicknesses converted into % body fat mass (BFM), mid-arm muscle circumference, hand-grip strength and several laboratory values, including serum albumin (SA1b), plasma insulin-like growth factor I (p-IGF-I), serum C-reactive protein (SCRP) and plasma free amino acids, were recorded. Dose of dialysis and protein equivalence of nitrogen appearance (nPNA) were evaluated by urea kinetic modeling. The patients were subdivided into three groups based on SGNA: group I, normal nutritional status (36%); group II, mild malnutrition (51%); and group III, moderate or (in 2 cases) severe malnutrition (13%). Clinical factors associated with malnutrition were: high age, presence of cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. nPNA and Kt/V(urea) were similar in the three groups. However, when normalized to desirable body wt, both were lower in groups II and III than in group I. Anthropometric factors associated with malnutrition were low body wt, skinfold thickness, mid-arm muscle circumference (MAMC), and handgrip strength. Biochemical factors associated with malnutrition were low serum levels of albumin and creatinine and low plasma levels of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) and branched-chain amino acids (isoleucine, leucine and valine). The serum albumin (SAlb) level was not only a predictor of nutritional status, but was independently influenced by age, sex and SCRP. Plasma IGF-1 levels also reflected the presence and severity of malnutrition and appeared to be more closely associated than SAlb with anthropometric and biochemical indices of somatic protein mass. Elevated SCRP (> 20 mg/liter), which mainly reflected the presence of infection/inflammation and was associated with hypoalbuminemia, was more common in malnourished patients than in patients with normal nutritional status, and also more common in elderly than in younger patients. Plasma amino acid levels, with the possible exception of the branched-chain amino acids (isoleucine, leucine, valine), seem to be poor predictors of nutritional status in hemodialysis patients.

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Journal

Journal ID (publisher-id): BPU

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Blood Purif

Journal ID (doi): 10.1159/issn.0253-5068

Title: Blood Purification

Publisher: S. Karger AG

ISBN: 978-3-8055-7885-1

ISBN: 978-3-318-01188-3

ISSN (Print): 0253-5068

ISSN (Electronic): 1421-9735

Publication date Subscription-year: 2005

Publication date (Print): December 2004

Publication date (Electronic): 07 February 2011

Volume: 23

Issue: 1

Pages: 57-63

Affiliations

Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Los Angeles Biomedical Institute at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, UCLA David Geffen School of Medicine, Torrance, Calif., USA

Article

Publisher ID: 82012 Other ID: Blood Purif 2005;23:57–63

DOI: 10.1159/000082012

PubMed ID: 15627738

SO-VID: 6d7e1d5e-4757-41aa-8abc-a4d140f068a1

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Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated into other languages, reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, microcopying, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Drug Dosage: The authors and the publisher have exerted every effort to ensure that drug selection and dosage set forth in this text are in accord with current recommendations and practice at the time of publication. However, in view of ongoing research, changes in government regulations, and the constant flow of information relating to drug therapy and drug reactions, the reader is urged to check the package insert for each drug for any changes in indications and dosage and for added warnings and precautions. This is particularly important when the recommended agent is a new and/or infrequently employed drug. Disclaimer: The statements, opinions and data contained in this publication are solely those of the individual authors and contributors and not of the publishers and the editor(s). The appearance of advertisements or/and product references in the publication is not a warranty, endorsement, or approval of the products or services advertised or of their effectiveness, quality or safety. The publisher and the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to persons or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content or advertisements.

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Reverse Epidemiology: A Spurious Hypothesis or a Hardcore Reality?

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Karger: Nephrology

Most cited references 32

Endotoxin and immune activation in chronic heart failure: a prospective cohort study.

Reverse epidemiology of conventional cardiovascular risk factors in patients with chronic heart failure.

Factors predicting malnutrition in hemodialysis patients: a cross-sectional study.

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Cited by 24

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