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      Predictive validity in middle childhood of short tests of early childhood development used in large scale studies compared to the Bayley-III, the Family Care Indicators, height-for-age, and stunting: A longitudinal study in Bogota, Colombia

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          Abstract

          There is increasing global commitment to establish early childhood interventions that promote the development of the millions of disadvantaged children in low- and middle-income countries not reaching their developmental potential. However, progress is hindered by the lack of valid developmental tests feasible for use at large scale. Consequently, there is an urgent need for such tests. Whilst screeners and single-domain tests (‘short tests’) are used as alternatives, their predictive validity in these circumstances is unknown. A longitudinal study in Bogota, Colombia began in 2011 when 1,311 children ages 6–42 months were given the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (Bayley-III) by psychologists and randomized to receive one of two batteries of short tests under survey conditions. Concurrent validity of the short tests with the Bayley-III (‘gold standard’) was reported. In 2016, at 6–8 years, 940 of these children were given tests of IQ (Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, WISC-V) and school achievement (arithmetic, reading, and vocabulary) by psychologists. We compared the ability of the short tests, the Family Care Indicators (FCI), height-for-age, stunting (median height-for-age <-2 SD), and the Bayley-III to predict IQ and achievement in middle childhood. Predictive validity increased with age for all tests, and cognition and language were usually the highest scales. At 6–18 months, all tests had trivial predictive ability. Thereafter, the Bayley-III had the highest predictive validity, but the Denver Developmental Screening Test was the most feasible and valid short test and could be used with little validity loss compared with the Bayley-III. The MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventory at 19–30 months and the FCI under 31 months predicted IQ and school achievement as well as the Bayley-III. The FCI had higher predictive validity than stunting and height-for-age, and could be added to stunting for use as a population-based indicator of child development.

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          The Jackknife, the Bootstrap and Other Resampling Plans

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            Early childhood development coming of age: science through the life course

            Early childhood development programmes vary in coordination and quality, with inadequate and inequitable access, especially for children younger than 3 years. New estimates, based on proxy measures of stunting and poverty, indicate that 250 million children (43%) younger than 5 years in low-income and middle-income countries are at risk of not reaching their developmental potential. There is therefore an urgent need to increase multisectoral coverage of quality programming that incorporates health, nutrition, security and safety, responsive caregiving, and early learning. Equitable early childhood policies and programmes are crucial for meeting Sustainable Development Goals, and for children to develop the intellectual skills, creativity, and wellbeing required to become healthy and productive adults. In this paper, the first in a three part Series on early childhood development, we examine recent scientific progress and global commitments to early childhood development. Research, programmes, and policies have advanced substantially since 2000, with new neuroscientific evidence linking early adversity and nurturing care with brain development and function throughout the life course.
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              Developmental potential in the first 5 years for children in developing countries

              Summary Many children younger than 5 years in developing countries are exposed to multiple risks, including poverty, malnutrition, poor health, and unstimulating home environments, which detrimentally affect their cognitive, motor, and social-emotional development. There are few national statistics on the development of young children in developing countries. We therefore identified two factors with available worldwide data—the prevalence of early childhood stunting and the number of people living in absolute poverty—to use as indicators of poor development. We show that both indicators are closely associated with poor cognitive and educational performance in children and use them to estimate that over 200 million children under 5 years are not fulfilling their developmental potential. Most of these children live in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. These disadvantaged children are likely to do poorly in school and subsequently have low incomes, high fertility, and provide poor care for their children, thus contributing to the intergenerational transmission of poverty.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: MethodologyRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                29 April 2020
                2020
                : 15
                : 4
                : e0231317
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Social Protection and Health Division, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, D.C., United States of America
                [2 ] Faculty of Population Health Sciences, Institute of Child Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
                Monash University, AUSTRALIA
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. The commercial affiliation of author MRC with the IDB does not alter the authors' adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials, which will be shared as indicated in the Data Availability Statement.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1286-7918
                Article
                PONE-D-19-20029
                10.1371/journal.pone.0231317
                7190101
                32348359
                6d80fd40-d0e1-4079-a63a-3d21f86a98d9
                © 2020 Rubio-Codina, Grantham-McGregor

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 18 July 2019
                : 21 March 2020
                Page count
                Figures: 2, Tables: 4, Pages: 20
                Funding
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004429, Inter-American Development Bank;
                Award ID: RG-T1907, CO-T1419
                Award Recipient :
                Data collection was funded by Funds RG-T1907 and CO-T1419 from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). MRC is employed by the IDB. Hence, the funder (IDB) provided support in the form of salaries to author MRC but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. SGM has no financial relationship relevant to this article to disclose. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDB, its Board of Directors, or the countries they represent.
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                Custom metadata
                The analysis data are available to download from the IDB Data Portal following the IDB data documentation standards ( https://data.iadb.org/DataCatalog/Dataset#DataCatalogID=sjty-9qzs). As the informed consent that study participants had signed before agreeing to participate in the study indicated that the data can only be used for research purposes, users will have to adhere to using the data for non-commercial research purposes.

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