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      Hurricane-induced demographic changes in a non-human primate population


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          Major disturbance events can have large impacts on the demography and dynamics of animal populations. Hurricanes are one example of an extreme climatic event, predicted to increase in frequency due to climate change, and thus expected to be a considerable threat to population viability. However, little is understood about the underlying demographic mechanisms shaping population response following these extreme disturbances. Here, we analyse 45 years of the most comprehensive free-ranging non-human primate demographic dataset to determine the effects of major hurricanes on the variability and maintenance of long-term population fitness. For this, we use individual-level data to build matrix population models and perform perturbation analyses. Despite reductions in population growth rate mediated through reduced fertility, our study reveals a demographic buffering during hurricane years. As long as survival does not decrease, our study shows that hurricanes do not result in detrimental effects at the population level, demonstrating the unbalanced contribution of survival and fertility to population fitness in long-lived animal populations.

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          Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes.

          Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20 degrees N.
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            Behavioural flexibility and invasion success in birds

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              Patterns of variance in stage-structured populations: evolutionary predictions and ecological implications.

              Variability in population growth rate is thought to have negative consequences for organism fitness. Theory for matrix population models predicts that variance in population growth rate should be the sum of the variance in each matrix entry times the squared sensitivity term for that matrix entry. I analyzed the stage-specific demography of 30 field populations from 17 published studies for pattern between the variance of a demographic term and its contribution to population growth. There were no instances in which a matrix entry both was highly variable and had a large effect on population growth rate; instead, correlations between estimates of temporal variance in a term and contribution to population growth (sensitivity or elasticity) were overwhelmingly negative. In addition, survivorship or growth sensitivities or elasticities always exceeded those of fecundity, implying that the former two terms always contributed more to population growth rate. These results suggest that variable life history stages tend to contribute relatively little to population growth rates because natural selection may alter life histories to minimize stages with both high sensitivity and high variation.

                Author and article information

                R Soc Open Sci
                R Soc Open Sci
                Royal Society Open Science
                The Royal Society
                August 2020
                19 August 2020
                19 August 2020
                : 7
                : 8
                : 200173
                [1 ]Department of Biology, University of Richmond , Richmond, VA, USA
                [2 ]Center for Research and Interdisciplinarity , Paris, France
                [3 ]Caribbean Primate Research Center, University of Puerto Rico , Medical Sciences Campus, San Juan, Puerto Rico
                [4 ]California State University , Long Beach, CA, USA
                Author notes
                Author for correspondence: Raisa Hernández-Pacheco e-mail: rai.hernandezpacheco@ 123456csulb.edu

                Electronic supplementary material is available online at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5088391.

                Author information
                © 2020 The Authors.

                Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

                : 31 January 2020
                : 17 July 2020
                Funded by: University of Richmond, Arts and Science Summer Fellowship and Dean's Office;
                Ecology, Conservation, and Global Change Biology
                Research Article
                Custom metadata
                August, 2020

                cayo santiago,hurricanes,matrix population models,rhesus macaque,life table response experiment


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