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      Meeting Global Cooling Demand with Photovoltaics during the 21st Century

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          Abstract

          Space conditioning, and cooling in particular, is a key factor in human productivity and well-being across the globe. During the 21st century, global cooling demand is expected to grow significantly due to the increase in wealth and population in sunny nations across the globe and the advance of global warming. The same locations that see high demand for cooling are also ideal for electricity generation via photovoltaics (PV). Despite the apparent synergy between cooling demand and PV generation, the potential of the cooling sector to sustain PV generation has not been assessed on a global scale. Here, we perform a global assessment of increased PV electricity adoption enabled by the residential cooling sector during the 21st century. Already today, utilizing PV production for cooling could facilitate an additional installed PV capacity of approximately 540 GW, more than the global PV capacity of today. Using established scenarios of population and income growth, as well as accounting for future global warming, we further project that the global residential cooling sector could sustain an added PV capacity between 20-200 GW each year for most of the 21st century, on par with the current global manufacturing capacity of 100 GW. Furthermore, we find that without storage, PV could directly power approximately 50% of cooling demand, and that this fraction is set to increase from 49% to 56% during the 21st century, as cooling demand grows in locations where PV and cooling have a higher synergy. With this geographic shift in demand, the potential of distributed storage also grows. We simulate that with a 1 m\(^3\) water-based latent thermal storage per household, the fraction of cooling demand met with PV would increase from 55% to 70% during the century. These results show that the synergy between cooling and PV is notable and could significantly accelerate the growth of the global PV industry.

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          Most cited references 16

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          Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

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            Effects of heat stress on cognitive performance: the current state of knowledge.

            This paper discusses the current state of knowledge on the effects of heat stress on cognitive performance. Although substantial research has been performed, it has proven difficult to describe the literature findings in a systematic manner. This is due to the large number of factors that come into play, such as task type, exposure duration, skill and acclimatization level of the individual and due to the absence of a concise theory on which experimental work can be based. However, two trends have been identified. First, heat stress affects cognitive performance differentially, depending on the type of cognitive task. Secondly, it appears that a relationship can be established between the effects of heat stress and deep body temperature. A number of exposure limits have been proposed during the last decades. These limits are summarized in this paper, with a special emphasis on the most recent one derived by Hancock and Vasmatzidis. This limit, which employs an attentional resource approach, defines exposure duration thresholds as parallel lines. Although this approach appears to be the most promising thus far, it is concluded that much remains to be understood before a limit becomes universally acceptable.
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              Crystalline silicon photovoltaics: a cost analysis framework for determining technology pathways to reach baseload electricity costs

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                24 February 2019
                1902.10080

                http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

                Custom metadata
                econ.GN physics.soc-ph q-fin.EC

                General physics

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