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      Projected changes in heatwaves over Central and South America using high-resolution regional climate simulations

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          Abstract

          Heatwaves (HWs) pose a severe threat to human and ecological systems. Here we assess the projected changes in heatwaves over Latin America using bias corrected high-resolution regional climate simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs). Heatwaves are projected to be more frequent, long-lasting, and intense in the mid-century under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with severe increases under the RCP8.5 scenario. Even under the low emissions scenario of RCP2.6, the frequency of heatwaves doubles over most of the region. A three- to tenfold rise in population exposure to heatwave days is projected over Central and South America, with climate change playing a dominant role in driving these changes. Results show that following the low emission pathway would reduce 57% and 50% of heatwave exposure for Central and South American regions respectively, highlighting the need to control anthropogenic emissions and implement sustainable practices.

          Supplementary Information

          The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-024-73521-6.

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          An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

          The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades and the future to year 2035. These “decadal predictions” are initialized based on observations and will be used to explore the predictability of climate and to assess the forecast system's predictive skill. The CMIP5 experiment design also allows for participation of stand-alone atmospheric models and includes a variety of idealized experiments that will improve understanding of the range of model responses found in the more complex and realistic simulations. An exceptionally comprehensive set of model output is being collected and made freely available to researchers through an integrated but distributed data archive. For researchers unfamiliar with climate models, the limitations of the models and experiment design are described.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                sarav@email.unc.edu
                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2045-2322
                4 October 2024
                4 October 2024
                2024
                : 14
                : 23145
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Institute for the Environment, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, ( https://ror.org/0130frc33) Chapel Hill, NC 27516 USA
                [2 ]Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, PA USA
                [3 ]GRID grid.47840.3f, ISNI 0000 0001 2181 7878, Department of City and Regional Planning and Institute for Transportation Studies, , University of California, ; Berkeley, CA USA
                [4 ]Observatory for Urban Health in Belo Horizonte, Federal University of Minas Gerais, ( https://ror.org/0176yjw32) Av. Pres. Antônio Carlos, 6627-Pampulha, Belo Horizonte, 31270-901 MG Brazil
                [5 ]Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, University of California, ( https://ror.org/05t99sp05) Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
                [6 ]Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University of Michigan School of Public Health, ( https://ror.org/00jmfr291) Ann Arbor, MI USA
                [7 ]Centre for Public Health, School of Medicine, Dentistry and Biomedical Sciences, Queen’s University, ( https://ror.org/00hswnk62) Belfast, Northern Ireland UK
                [8 ]Department of Preventive Medicine, University of Sao Paulo Medical School, ( https://ror.org/036rp1748) Sao Paulo, Brazil
                [9 ]School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, ( https://ror.org/01rxvg760) Nanjing, China
                [10 ]Urban Health Collaborative, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, PA USA
                [11 ]National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, MoES, ( https://ror.org/021kzta69) Noida, UP 201309 India
                Article
                73521
                10.1038/s41598-024-73521-6
                11452631
                39367031
                6ed2d599-9044-4e65-be8d-14c6a86ec794
                © The Author(s) 2024

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

                History
                : 6 May 2024
                : 18 September 2024
                Funding
                Funded by: Wellcome Trust
                Award ID: 205177/Z/16/Z
                Categories
                Article
                Custom metadata
                © Springer Nature Limited 2024

                Uncategorized
                heatwave,population exposure,future scenarios,wrf modelling,high resolution climate projections,latin america,climate and earth system modelling,climate-change impacts

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