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      Evolutionary Rescue

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      Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics
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          Ocean acidification: the other CO2 problem.

          Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily from human fossil fuel combustion, reduces ocean pH and causes wholesale shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry. The process of ocean acidification is well documented in field data, and the rate will accelerate over this century unless future CO2 emissions are curbed dramatically. Acidification alters seawater chemical speciation and biogeochemical cycles of many elements and compounds. One well-known effect is the lowering of calcium carbonate saturation states, which impacts shell-forming marine organisms from plankton to benthic molluscs, echinoderms, and corals. Many calcifying species exhibit reduced calcification and growth rates in laboratory experiments under high-CO2 conditions. Ocean acidification also causes an increase in carbon fixation rates in some photosynthetic organisms (both calcifying and noncalcifying). The potential for marine organisms to adapt to increasing CO2 and broader implications for ocean ecosystems are not well known; both are high priorities for future research. Although ocean pH has varied in the geological past, paleo-events may be only imperfect analogs to current conditions.
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            Is Open Access

            Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence

            Many studies have recorded phenotypic changes in natural populations and attributed them to climate change. However, controversy and uncertainty has arisen around three levels of inference in such studies. First, it has proven difficult to conclusively distinguish whether phenotypic changes are genetically based or the result of phenotypic plasticity. Second, whether or not the change is adaptive is usually assumed rather than tested. Third, inferences that climate change is the specific causal agent have rarely involved the testing – and exclusion – of other potential drivers. We here review the various ways in which the above inferences have been attempted, and evaluate the strength of support that each approach can provide. This methodological assessment sets the stage for 11 accompanying review articles that attempt comprehensive syntheses of what is currently known – and not known – about responses to climate change in a variety of taxa and in theory. Summarizing and relying on the results of these reviews, we arrive at the conclusion that evidence for genetic adaptation to climate change has been found in some systems, but is still relatively scarce. Most importantly, it is clear that more studies are needed – and these must employ better inferential methods – before general conclusions can be drawn. Overall, we hope that the present paper and special issue provide inspiration for future research and guidelines on best practices for its execution.
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              Adaptive therapy.

              A number of successful systemic therapies are available for treatment of disseminated cancers. However, tumor response is often transient, and therapy frequently fails due to emergence of resistant populations. The latter reflects the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the tumor microenvironment as well as the evolutionary capacity of cancer phenotypes to adapt to therapeutic perturbations. Although cancers are highly dynamic systems, cancer therapy is typically administered according to a fixed, linear protocol. Here we examine an adaptive therapeutic approach that evolves in response to the temporal and spatial variability of tumor microenvironment and cellular phenotype as well as therapy-induced perturbations. Initial mathematical models find that when resistant phenotypes arise in the untreated tumor, they are typically present in small numbers because they are less fit than the sensitive population. This reflects the "cost" of phenotypic resistance such as additional substrate and energy used to up-regulate xenobiotic metabolism, and therefore not available for proliferation, or the growth inhibitory nature of environments (i.e., ischemia or hypoxia) that confer resistance on phenotypically sensitive cells. Thus, in the Darwinian environment of a cancer, the fitter chemosensitive cells will ordinarily proliferate at the expense of the less fit chemoresistant cells. The models show that, if resistant populations are present before administration of therapy, treatments designed to kill maximum numbers of cancer cells remove this inhibitory effect and actually promote more rapid growth of the resistant populations. We present an alternative approach in which treatment is continuously modulated to achieve a fixed tumor population. The goal of adaptive therapy is to enforce a stable tumor burden by permitting a significant population of chemosensitive cells to survive so that they, in turn, suppress proliferation of the less fit but chemoresistant subpopulations. Computer simulations show that this strategy can result in prolonged survival that is substantially greater than that of high dose density or metronomic therapies. The feasibility of adaptive therapy is supported by in vivo experiments. [Cancer Res 2009;69(11):4894-903] Major FindingsWe present mathematical analysis of the evolutionary dynamics of tumor populations with and without therapy. Analytic solutions and numerical simulations show that, with pretreatment, therapy-resistant cancer subpopulations are present due to phenotypic or microenvironmental factors; maximum dose density chemotherapy hastens rapid expansion of resistant populations. The models predict that host survival can be maximized if "treatment-for-cure strategy" is replaced by "treatment-for-stability." Specifically, the models predict that an optimal treatment strategy will modulate therapy to maintain a stable population of chemosensitive cells that can, in turn, suppress the growth of resistant populations under normal tumor conditions (i.e., when therapy-induced toxicity is absent). In vivo experiments using OVCAR xenografts treated with carboplatin show that adaptive therapy is feasible and, in this system, can produce long-term survival.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics
                Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst.
                Annual Reviews
                1543-592X
                1545-2069
                November 02 2017
                November 02 2017
                : 48
                : 1
                : 605-627
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Biology Department, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3A 1B1, Canada;
                Article
                10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110316-023011
                703273a3-a5da-4b44-9d76-0c9b01bf895a
                © 2017
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