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      Impact of emergency medicine training implementation on mortality outcomes in Kigali, Rwanda: An interrupted time-series study

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          Abstract

          Introduction

          Although emergency medicine (EM) training programmes have begun to be introduced in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), minimal data exist on their effects on patient-centered outcomes in such settings. This study evaluated the impact of EM training and associated systems implementation on mortality among patients treated at the University Teaching Hospital-Kigali (UTH-K).

          Methods

          At UTH-K an EM post-graduate diploma programme was initiated in October 2013, followed by a residency-training programme in August 2015. Prior to October 2013, care was provided exclusively by general practice physicians (GPs); subsequently, care has been provided through mutually exclusive shifts allocated between GPs and EM trainees. Patients seeking Emergency Centre (EC) care during November 2012–October 2013 (pre-training) and August 2015–July 2016 (post-training) were eligible for inclusion. Data were abstracted from a random sample of records using a structured protocol. The primary outcomes were EC and overall hospital mortality. Mortality prevalence and risk differences (RD) were compared pre- and post-training. Magnitudes of effects were quantified using regression models to yield adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

          Results

          From 43,213 encounters, 3609 cases were assessed. The median age was 32 years with a male predominance (60.7%). Pre-training EC mortality was 6.3% (95% CI 5.3–7.5%), while post-training EC mortality was 1.2% (95% CI 0.7–1.8%), constituting a significant decrease in adjusted analysis (aOR = 0.07, 95% CI 0.03–0.17; p < 0.001). Pre-training overall hospital mortality was 12.2% (95% CI 10.9–13.8%). Post-training overall hospital mortality was 8.2% (95% CI 6.9–9.6%), resulting in a 43% reduction in mortality likelihood (aOR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.36–0.94; p = 0.016).

          Discussion

          In the studied population, EM training and systems implementation was associated with significant mortality reductions demonstrating the potential patient-centered benefits of EM development in resource-limited settings.

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          Most cited references33

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          Trends and characteristics of US emergency department visits, 1997-2007.

          The potential effects of increasing numbers of uninsured and underinsured persons on US emergency departments (EDs) is a concern for the health care safety net. To describe the changes in ED visits that occurred from 1997 through 2007 in the adult and pediatric US populations by sociodemographic group, designation of safety-net ED, and trends in ambulatory care-sensitive conditions. Publicly available ED visit data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) from 1997 through 2007 were stratified by age, sex, race, ethnicity, insurance status, safety-net hospital classification, triage category, and disposition. Codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9), were used to extract visits related to ambulatory care-sensitive conditions. Visit rates were calculated using annual US Census estimates. Total annual visits to US EDs and ED visit rates for population subgroups. Between 1997 and 2007, ED visit rates increased from 352.8 to 390.5 per 1000 persons (rate difference, 37.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], -51.1 to 126.5; P = .001 for trend); the increase in total annual ED visits was almost double of what would be expected from population growth. Adults with Medicaid accounted for most of the increase in ED visits; the visit rate increased from 693.9 to 947.2 visits per 1000 enrollees between 1999 and 2007 (rate difference, 253.3; 95% CI, 41.1 to 465.5; P = .001 for trend). Although ED visit rates for adults with ambulatory care-sensitive conditions remained stable, ED visit rates among adults with Medicaid increased from 66.4 in 1999 to 83.9 in 2007 (rate difference, 17.5; 95% CI, -5.8 to 40.8; P = .007 for trend). The number of facilities qualifying as safety-net EDs increased from 1770 in 2000 to 2489 in 2007. These findings indicate that ED visit rates have increased from 1997 to 2007 and that EDs are increasingly serving as the safety net for medically underserved patients, particularly adults with Medicaid.
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            Best (but oft-forgotten) practices: the multiple problems of multiplicity-whether and how to correct for many statistical tests.

            Testing many null hypotheses in a single study results in an increased probability of detecting a significant finding just by chance (the problem of multiplicity). Debates have raged over many years with regard to whether to correct for multiplicity and, if so, how it should be done. This article first discusses how multiple tests lead to an inflation of the α level, then explores the following different contexts in which multiplicity arises: testing for baseline differences in various types of studies, having >1 outcome variable, conducting statistical tests that produce >1 P value, taking multiple "peeks" at the data, and unplanned, post hoc analyses (i.e., "data dredging," "fishing expeditions," or "P-hacking"). It then discusses some of the methods that have been proposed for correcting for multiplicity, including single-step procedures (e.g., Bonferroni); multistep procedures, such as those of Holm, Hochberg, and Šidák; false discovery rate control; and resampling approaches. Note that these various approaches describe different aspects and are not necessarily mutually exclusive. For example, resampling methods could be used to control the false discovery rate or the family-wise error rate (as defined later in this article). However, the use of one of these approaches presupposes that we should correct for multiplicity, which is not universally accepted, and the article presents the arguments for and against such "correction." The final section brings together these threads and presents suggestions with regard to when it makes sense to apply the corrections and how to do so.
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              Experimental and quasi-experimental designs for evaluating guideline implementation strategies.

              The choice of study design for guideline implementation studies will determine the confidence with which the observed effects can be attributed to the interventions under study. In general, cluster randomized trials, of which there are different types, provide the most robust design. However, the use of these designs has implications for the power, conduct and analysis of studies. Wherever possible, designs allowing head-to-head comparisons, which incorporate baseline measures of performance, should be used.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Afr J Emerg Med
                Afr J Emerg Med
                African Journal of Emergency Medicine
                African Federation for Emergency Medicine
                2211-419X
                2211-4203
                13 October 2018
                March 2019
                13 October 2018
                : 9
                : 1
                : 14-20
                Affiliations
                [a ]Department of Emergency Medicine, Brown University Alpert Medical School, Providence, USA
                [b ]Department of Anesthesia, Emergency Medicine and Critical Care, University of Rwanda, Kigali, Rwanda
                [c ]University of Rwanda College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Kigali, Rwanda
                [d ]sidHARTe Program, Heilbrunn Department of Population and Family Health, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, USA
                [e ]Department of Emergency Medicine, Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, USA
                [f ]Service d'Aide Médicale Urgente, Kigali, Rwanda
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author. adam.aluisio@ 123456gmail.com
                Article
                S2211-419X(18)30113-7
                10.1016/j.afjem.2018.10.002
                6400013
                30873346
                703302db-197c-421e-a38f-5a8eb388beae
                2019 African Federation for Emergency Medicine. Publishing services provided by Elsevier.

                This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

                History
                : 2 August 2018
                : 4 September 2018
                : 4 October 2018
                Categories
                Original article

                emergency medicine,training,mortality,rwanda,africa
                emergency medicine, training, mortality, rwanda, africa

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