Averting Tragedy: An Exploration of Thwarted Mass Public Shootings Relative to Completed Attacks

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Abstract

Scholarship on mass public shootings has increased in recent years as comprehensive datasets have become more available. As a result, much is known about the contextual and offender related characteristics of such attacks. However, less research has been conducted on attacks that were planned but ultimately did not occur. Understanding how mass public shootings may be thwarted or averted is important for both policy and theoretical reasons. In this paper, we describe a new dataset of averted mass public shooting threats (N = 194) from 2000–2019 and compare them to mass public shootings that were completed during this time (N = 97). Several noteworthy findings emerged, including that nearly half of the averted cases were reported by a friend or acquaintance, most targeted a specific location or group, and averted cases were more likely to involve school targets and co-offenders. Implications are discussed.

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Computing inter-rater reliability and its variance in the presence of high agreement.

Kilem L Gwet (2008)

Pi (pi) and kappa (kappa) statistics are widely used in the areas of psychiatry and psychological testing to compute the extent of agreement between raters on nominally scaled data. It is a fact that these coefficients occasionally yield unexpected results in situations known as the paradoxes of kappa. This paper explores the origin of these limitations, and introduces an alternative and more stable agreement coefficient referred to as the AC1 coefficient. Also proposed are new variance estimators for the multiple-rater generalized pi and AC1 statistics, whose validity does not depend upon the hypothesis of independence between raters. This is an improvement over existing alternative variances, which depend on the independence assumption. A Monte-Carlo simulation study demonstrates the validity of these variance estimators for confidence interval construction, and confirms the value of AC1 as an improved alternative to existing inter-rater reliability statistics.