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      The Relative Importance of Different Flood‐Generating Mechanisms Across Europe

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          A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006

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            The Changing Character of Precipitation

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              Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate.

              Radiative effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, in particular an intensification of the global water cycle with a consequent increase in flood risk. But the detection of anthropogenically forced changes in flooding is difficult because of the substantial natural variability; the dependence of streamflow trends on flow regime further complicates the issue. Here we investigate the changes in risk of great floods--that is, floods with discharges exceeding 100-year levels from basins larger than 200,000 km(2)--using both streamflow measurements and numerical simulations of the anthropogenic climate change associated with greenhouse gases and direct radiative effects of sulphate aerosols. We find that the frequency of great floods increased substantially during the twentieth century. The recent emergence of a statistically significant positive trend in risk of great floods is consistent with results from the climate model, and the model suggests that the trend will continue.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Water Resources Research
                Water Resour. Res.
                American Geophysical Union (AGU)
                0043-1397
                1944-7973
                June 05 2019
                June 05 2019
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Environmental Systems ScienceETH Zurich Zürich Switzerland
                [2 ]European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reading UK
                [3 ]Institute of Environmental EngineeringETH Zurich Zürich Switzerland
                [4 ]School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford Oxford UK
                [5 ]School of Social Sciences: Geography and EnvironmentLoughborough University Loughborough UK
                [6 ]Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland
                [7 ]Department of Earth and Planetary ScienceUniversity of California Berkeley CA USA
                10.1029/2019WR024841
                © 2019

                http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1

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