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      Impact of a treatment as prevention strategy on hepatitis C virus transmission and on morbidity in people who inject drugs

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          Abstract

          Background: Highly effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens (90% efficacy) are becoming available for hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. This therapeutic revolution leads us to consider possibility of eradicating the virus. However, for this, an effective cascade of care is required. Methods: In the context of the incoming DAAs, we used a dynamic individual-based model including a model of the people who inject drugs (PWID) social network to simulate the impact of improved testing, linkage to care, and adherence to treatment, and of modified treatment recommendation on the transmission and on the morbidity of HCV in PWID in France. Results: Under the current incidence and cascade of care, with treatment initiated at fibrosis stage \(\ge\)F2, the HCV prevalence decreased from 42.8% to 24.9% [95% confidence interval 24.8%--24.9%] after 10 years. Changing treatment initiation criteria to treat from F0 was the only intervention leading to a substantial additional decrease in the prevalence, which fell to 11.6% [11.6%--11.7%] at 10 years. Combining this change with improved testing, linkage to care, and adherence to treatment decreased HCV prevalence to 7% [7%--7.1%] at 10 years and avoided 15.3% [14.0%-16.6%] and 29.0% [27.9%--30.1%] of cirrhosis complications over 10 and 40 years respectively. Conclusion: A high decrease in viral transmission occurs only when treatment is initiated before liver disease progresses to severe stages, suggesting that systematic treatment in PWID, where incidence remains high, would be beneficial. However, eradication will be difficult to achieve.

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          The structure and function of complex networks

          M. Newman (2003)
          Inspired by empirical studies of networked systems such as the Internet, social networks, and biological networks, researchers have in recent years developed a variety of techniques and models to help us understand or predict the behavior of these systems. Here we review developments in this field, including such concepts as the small-world effect, degree distributions, clustering, network correlations, random graph models, models of network growth and preferential attachment, and dynamical processes taking place on networks.
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            Ledipasvir and sofosbuvir for 8 or 12 weeks for chronic HCV without cirrhosis.

            High rates of sustained virologic response were observed among patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who received 12 weeks of treatment with the nucleotide polymerase inhibitor sofosbuvir combined with the NS5A inhibitor ledipasvir. This study examined 8 weeks of treatment with this regimen. In this phase 3, open-label study, we randomly assigned 647 previously untreated patients with HCV genotype 1 infection without cirrhosis to receive ledipasvir and sofosbuvir (ledipasvir-sofosbuvir) for 8 weeks, ledipasvir-sofosbuvir plus ribavirin for 8 weeks, or ledipasvir-sofosbuvir for 12 weeks. The primary end point was sustained virologic response at 12 weeks after the end of therapy. The rate of sustained virologic response was 94% (95% confidence interval [CI], 90 to 97) with 8 weeks of ledipasvir-sofosbuvir, 93% (95% CI, 89 to 96) with 8 weeks of ledipasvir-sofosbuvir plus ribavirin, and 95% (95% CI, 92 to 98) with 12 weeks of ledipasvir-sofosbuvir. As compared with the rate of sustained virologic response in the group that received 8 weeks of ledipasvir-sofosbuvir, the rate in the 12-week group was 1 percentage point higher (97.5% CI, -4 to 6) and the rate in the group that received 8 weeks of ledipasvir-sofosbuvir with ribavirin was 1 percentage point lower (95% CI, -6 to 4); these results indicated noninferiority of the 8-week ledipasvir-sofosbuvir regimen, on the basis of a noninferiority margin of 12 percentage points. Adverse events were more common in the group that received ribavirin than in the other two groups. No patient who received 8 weeks of only ledipasvir-sofosbuvir discontinued treatment owing to adverse events. Ledipasvir-sofosbuvir for 8 weeks was associated with a high rate of sustained virologic response among previously untreated patients with HCV genotype 1 infection without cirrhosis. No additional benefit was associated with the inclusion of ribavirin in the regimen or with extension of the duration of treatment to 12 weeks. (Funded by Gilead Sciences; ION-3 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01851330.).
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              Approximate Bayesian computational methods

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                1506.02987

                Evolutionary Biology
                Evolutionary Biology

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