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      Mortality due to traffic accidents, before and after the reduction of the average speed of motor vehicles in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, from 2010 to 2016 Translated title: Mortalidade por acidentes de trânsito, antes e após redução da velocidade média de veículos automotores na cidade de São Paulo, Brasil, no período de 2010 a 2016

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          Abstract

          INTRODUCTION: Traffic accidents represent a relevant global public health problem and are associated with behavioral factors, vehicle maintenance, urban space precariousness and traffic surveillance. They are important causes of morbidity and mortality due to the increasing number of vehicles and changes in lifestyle and risk behaviors in the general population OBJECTIVE: To analyze mortality numbers due to land transport accidents reported in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, before and after the decline of average speed of motor vehicles METHODS: A study of temporal series was carried out using official database provided by the Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. Data was collected according to the type of occurrence and place of residence in São Paulo, SP, Brazil. Other sources of data were Death Certificates. Population data was collected by the foundation SEADE for the other years used, and data from 2010 was collected by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística do Brasil (IBGE), the Brazilian institute of geography and statistics. More death data has been collected using the tenth review of the WHO International Classification of Diseases (V00- V89) for overall population and were stratified in age groups (<10 years, 10-19 years, 20-49 years, 50 years and more), city (São Paulo) and the year timetable (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016). The data was calculated based on plain death rate and standardized, for gender and age group. The measures of mortality were used for the construction of temporal series by the regression model of Prais-Winsten. All the analysis were made through the statistics program Stata 14.0 RESULTS: Reportedly, 7288 deaths occurred due to land accidents in São Paulo, the state's capital, between 2010 and 2016. The higher proportion of deaths happened between men with age between 20-49 years, brownish skin color, marital status single, between 4 e 7 years of study. 72.55% of deaths happened within of hospitals and/or other health establishments. The deaths ranged 1.200 in 2010 and went down to 779 in 2016. The standard mortality for transport accidents between 2010 and 2016 fluctuated from 10.04 to 6.29 for every 100 thousand inhabitants CONCLUSION: There was a decrease in deaths related to traffic accidents in individuals over 20 years of age. After the reduction of the average speed of motor vehicles in the city of São Paulo, the decline in mortality due to traffic accidents was more pronounced among individuals aged 50 years or older, with significant differences for men and women

          Translated abstract

          INTRODUÇÃO: Os acidentes de trânsito representam um relevante problema global de saúde pública e estão associados a fatores comportamentais, segurança dos veículos e precariedade do espaço urbano. Configuram-se como importantes causas de morbidade e mortalidade devido ao número crescente de veículos, mudanças no estilo de vida e comportamentos de risco na população geral OBJETIVO: Analisar a mortalidade por acidentes de Trânsito, notificados no município de São Paulo, Brasil, antes e após redução da velocidade média de veículos automotores MÉTODO: Trata-se de estudo de séries temporais com microdados oficiais do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. Os dados foram coletados por local de ocorrência e de residência para o município de São Paulo, SP, Brasil. A fonte de dados foi a Declaração de Óbito. Dados da população foram obtidos por intermédio de estimativas realizadas pela fundação SEADE para os anos intercensitários e para 2010, coletados pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística do Brasil (IBGE). Dados dos óbitos por acidentes de Trânsito foram coletados usando a décima revisão da Classificação Internacional de Doenças (V00- V89) pelo total da população e foram estratificadas em grupos de idades (<10 anos, 10-19 anos, 20-49 anos, 50 anos e mais), município (São Paulo) e anos do calendário (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 e 2016). Foram calculadas as taxas de mortalidade brutas e padronizadas, por sexo e faixa etária. Foram utilizadas as medidas de mortalidade para construção de séries temporais através do modelo de regressão de Prais-Winsten. Todas as análises foram efetuadas no programa estatístico Stata 14.0 RESULTADOS: Foram notificados 7,288 óbitos por acidentes de Trânsito ocorridos na cidade de São Paulo de residentes da capital do estado, durante o período 2010 a 2016. A maior proporção de óbitos ocorreu entre indivíduos do sexo masculino, com idade entre 20-49 anos, cor da pele branca, estado civil solteiro, entre 4 e 7 anos de estudo. 72.55% dos óbitos ocorreram dentro de hospitais e/ou outros estabelecimentos de saúde. Os óbitos variaram de 1,200 em 2010 para 779 em 2016. A mortalidade padronizada por acidentes de Trânsito entre 2010 e 2016 variou de 10.04 para 6.29 por 100 mil habitantes CONCLUSÃO: Observou-se diminuição dos óbitos relacionados aos acidentes de trânsito em indivíduos acima de 20 anos. Após redução da velocidade média de veículos automotores na cidade de São Paulo, o declínio da mortalidade por acidentes de trânsito foi mais acentuado entre indivíduos com 50 anos ou mais, com diferenças para homens e mulheres

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          Uso da análise de séries temporais em estudos epidemiológicos

          Esse artigo visa introduzir e cativar o interesse sobre a análise de séries temporais em estudos epidemiológicos. São descritos aspectos conceituais desse tipo de análise e sistematizadas indicações metodológicas. Foram definidos os principais conceitos da análise de séries temporais (tendência, variação cíclica e sazonal, associação e variação aleatória), e operacionalizada sua aplicação epidemiológica. Foram apresentados os métodos para avaliação da tendência (porcentagem de modificação anual), baseados em modelos de regressão de Prais-Winsten, e para quantificação da variação sazonal, segundo o modelo de Serfling. Foi, ainda, introduzida a modalidade de análise de regressão segmentada para séries temporais interrompidas, como estratégia de avaliação do efeito de intervenções em saúde.
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            Global collaboration on road traffic injury prevention.

             Margie Peden (2005)
            Worldwide, nearly 1.2 million people are killed in road traffic crashes every year and 20 million to 50 million more are injured or disabled. These injuries account for 2.1% of global mortality and 2.6% of all disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. Low- and middle-income countries account for about 85% of the deaths and 90% of the DALYs lost annually. Without appropriate action, by 2020, road traffic injuries are predicted to be the third leading contributor to the global burden of disease. The economic cost of road traffic crashes is enormous. Globally it is estimated that US$518 billion is spent on road traffic crashes with low- and middle-income countries accounting for US$65 billion--more than these countries receive in development assistance. But these costs are just the tip of the iceberg. For everyone killed, injured or disabled by a road traffic crash there are countless others deeply affected. Many families are driven into poverty by the expenses of prolonged medical care, loss of a family breadwinner or the added burden of caring for the disabled. There is an urgent need for global collaboration on road traffic injury prevention. Since 2000, WHO has stepped up its response to the road safety crisis by firstly developing a 5-year strategy for road traffic injury prevention and following this by dedicating World Health Day 2004 to road safety and launching the WHO/World Bank World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention at the global World Health Day event in Paris, France. This short article highlights the main messages from the World Report and the six recommendations for action on road safety at a national and international level. It goes on to briefly discuss other international achievements since World Health Day and calls for countries to take up the challenge of implementing the recommendations of the World Report.
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              Research methodology topics: Cross-sectional studies

              In health the most frequent researches are done in the form of observational studies. In this type of scientific research the researchers do not interfere with the phenomena under study, only observe in a systematic and standardized manner, collecting and recording information, data or materials that spontaneously occur at a particular time of the health-disease process, or along its natural evolution, and then proceed with its description and/or analysis. In observational studies normally four types of study design are used: case series studies, cross-section studies, case-control studies and cohort studies. Thus, cross-sectional studies are very useful in descriptive studies when used in studies that are proposed to be analytical, the results must be interpreted by researchers with good experience in that specific field of knowledge, using a lot of caution and common sense.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
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                Journal
                rbcdh
                Journal of Human Growth and Development
                J. Hum. Growth Dev.
                Centro de Estudos de Crescimento e Desenvolvimento do Ser Humano (São Paulo, SP, Brazil )
                0104-1282
                2175-3598
                April 2019
                : 29
                : 1
                : 83-92
                S0104-12822019000100011
                10.7322/jhgd.157755

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

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                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 44, Pages: 10
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                Product Information: SciELO Periódicos Eletrônicos em Psicologia
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