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      Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality for Peruvian Population

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          Abstract

          In this article, we have modeled mortality rates of Peruvian female and male populations during the period of 1950-2017 using the Lee-Carter (LC) model. The stochastic mortality model was introduced by Lee and Carter (1992) and has been used by many authors for fitting and forecasting the human mortality rates. The Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) approach is used for estimation of the parameters of the LC model. Utilizing the best fitted auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model we forecast the values of the time dependent parameter of the LC model for the next thirty years. The forecasted values of life expectancy at different age group with \(95\%\) confidence intervals are also reported for the next thirty years. In this research we use the data, obtained from the Peruvian National Institute of Statistics (INEI).

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          Most cited references 9

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          Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality

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            A cohort-based extension to the Lee–Carter model for mortality reduction factors

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              A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries.

               S R Tuljapurkar,  C Boe,  N. Li (2000)
              Human lifespan has increased enormously this century. But we remain uncertain about the forces that reduce mortality, and about the cost implications of ageing populations and their associated social burden. The poor understanding of the factors driving mortality decline, and the difficulty of forecasting mortality are due in part to the pronounced irregularity of annual to decadal mortality change. Here we examine mortality over five decades in the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US). In every country over this period, mortality at each age has declined exponentially at a roughly constant rate. This trend places a constraint on any theory of society-driven mortality decline, and provides a basis for stochastic mortality forecasting. We find that median forecasts of life expectancy are substantially larger than in existing official forecasts. In terms of the costs of ageing, we forecast values of the dependency ratio (that is, the ratio of people over 65 to working people) in 2050 that are between 6% (UK) and 40% (Japan) higher than official forecasts.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                22 November 2018
                1811.09622

                http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

                Custom metadata
                16 pages, 6 figures
                econ.GN q-fin.EC

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