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      Estimación de la densidad de especies de coníferas a partir de variables ambientales Translated title: Density estimation of conifer species from environmental variables

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          Abstract

          Las coníferas son la fuente más importante de materia prima para la industria forestal mexicana, cumplen funciones ecológicas importantes y proveen bienes y servicios para el hombre. Para probar si es posible predecir la densidad de las especies de coníferas a partir de las variables ambientales, se hizo un análisis de regresión lineal múltiple por el método paso por paso (stepwise). Se estudiaron veinte especies de cinco géneros distintos y once variables ambientales (nueve variables climáticas, una fisiográfica y otra de suelo). En este trabajo se detectó una escasa relación lineal entre la densidad de especies y las variables predictivas; no obstante, algunos indicadores sugieren que en 60% de las especies, la densidad es afectada principalmente por al menos cuatro variables ambientales; entre las que destacan la precipitación de abril a septiembre, el fenómeno de las heladas, la altitud sobre el nivel del mar y la precipitación media anual.

          Translated abstract

          Conifers are the most important source of raw material for the Mexican timber industry, besides they are a source of environmental services and are habitat of many living organisms. In order to evaluate if it is possible to predict species density of conifers by utilizing environmental variables, this study was conducted using multiple linear regression analysis by the method known as stepwise. Twenty species of conifers of five different genus and eleven environmental variables were analyzed. The results revealed that there is a small linear relationship between the abundance of the species and the analyzed predictors. However, some of the study findings indicate that the abundance for 60% of the selected conifer species is affected by at least four environmental variables, including mainly, the precipitation during the growing season (April to September), the average length of the frost-free period, the altitude above the sea level and the mean annual precipitation.

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          Vegetación de México

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            Interpretation of Models of Fundamental Ecological Niches and Species’ Distributional Areas

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              Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations

              Abstract Species distribution models predict a wholesale redistribution of trees in the next century, yet migratory responses necessary to spatially track climates far exceed maximum post-glacial rates. The extent to which populations will adapt will depend upon phenotypic variation, strength of selection, fecundity, interspecific competition, and biotic interactions. Populations of temperate and boreal trees show moderate to strong clines in phenology and growth along temperature gradients, indicating substantial local adaptation. Traits involved in local adaptation appear to be the product of small effects of many genes, and the resulting genotypic redundancy combined with high fecundity may facilitate rapid local adaptation despite high gene flow. Gene flow with preadapted alleles from warmer climates may promote adaptation and migration at the leading edge, while populations at the rear will likely face extirpation. Widespread species with large populations and high fecundity are likely to persist and adapt, but will likely suffer adaptational lag for a few generations. As all tree species will be suffering lags, interspecific competition may weaken, facilitating persistence under suboptimal conditions. Species with small populations, fragmented ranges, low fecundity, or suffering declines due to introduced insects or diseases should be candidates for facilitated migration.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                mb
                Madera y bosques
                Madera bosques
                Instituto de Ecología A.C. (Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico )
                1405-0471
                2448-7597
                June 2015
                : 21
                : 1
                : 23-33
                Affiliations
                [02] Durango orgnameUniversidad Juárez del Estado de Durango orgdiv1Instituto de Silvicultura e Industria de la Madera México
                [01] orgnameInstituto Tecnológico Superior de Venustiano Carranza
                Article
                S1405-04712015000100003 S1405-0471(15)02100100003
                732afa8b-da92-4388-af18-6917161f5449

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

                History
                : 29 May 2014
                : 26 August 2013
                Page count
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 36, Pages: 11
                Product

                SciELO Mexico

                Categories
                Artículos de investigación

                multiple linear regressions,Sierra Madre Occidental,frost period,Durango,elevation,variables del clima,regresión lineal múltiple,heladas,altura,climate variables

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