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Abstract
Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate
change. In long-lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how
much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely
unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will
be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process-based species distribution
model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to
suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate
variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological
plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the
species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological
plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range
limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly
adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the
range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical
variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution
models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species
distribution under climate change scenarios.