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      What's wrong with risk matrices?

      1
      Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
      Wiley

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          Abstract

          Risk matrices-tables mapping "frequency" and "severity" ratings to corresponding risk priority levels-are popular in applications as diverse as terrorism risk analysis, highway construction project management, office building risk analysis, climate change risk management, and enterprise risk management (ERM). National and international standards (e.g., Military Standard 882C and AS/NZS 4360:1999) have stimulated adoption of risk matrices by many organizations and risk consultants. However, little research rigorously validates their performance in actually improving risk management decisions. This article examines some mathematical properties of risk matrices and shows that they have the following limitations. (a) Poor Resolution. Typical risk matrices can correctly and unambiguously compare only a small fraction (e.g., less than 10%) of randomly selected pairs of hazards. They can assign identical ratings to quantitatively very different risks ("range compression"). (b) Errors. Risk matrices can mistakenly assign higher qualitative ratings to quantitatively smaller risks. For risks with negatively correlated frequencies and severities, they can be "worse than useless," leading to worse-than-random decisions. (c) Suboptimal Resource Allocation. Effective allocation of resources to risk-reducing countermeasures cannot be based on the categories provided by risk matrices. (d) Ambiguous Inputs and Outputs. Categorizations of severity cannot be made objectively for uncertain consequences. Inputs to risk matrices (e.g., frequency and severity categorizations) and resulting outputs (i.e., risk ratings) require subjective interpretation, and different users may obtain opposite ratings of the same quantitative risks. These limitations suggest that risk matrices should be used with caution, and only with careful explanations of embedded judgments.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          Risk Anal
          Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
          Wiley
          1539-6924
          0272-4332
          Apr 2008
          : 28
          : 2
          Affiliations
          [1 ] Cox Associates and University of Colorado, 503 Franklin St., Denver, CO 80218, USA. tcoxdenver@aol.com
          Article
          RISK1030
          10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01030.x
          18419665
          73fcefb6-3c77-4561-8b48-5bd7b806b96b
          History

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