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      Systems modelling and simulation in health service design, delivery and decision making

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      Journal: BMJ Quality & Safety
      Publisher: BMJ

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          Abstract

          The ever increasing pressures to ensure the most efficient and effective use of limited health service resources will, over time, encourage policy makers to turn to system modelling solutions. Such techniques have been available for decades, but despite ample research which demonstrates potential, their application in health services to date is limited. This article surveys the breadth of approaches available to support delivery and design across many areas and levels of healthcare planning. A case study in emergency stroke care is presented as an exemplar of an impactful application of health system modelling. This is followed by a discussion of the key issues surrounding the application of these methods in health, what barriers need to be overcome to ensure more effective implementation, as well as likely developments in the future.

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          Measuring the efficiency of decision making units

          A. Charnes, W.W. Cooper, Anne E Rhodes (1978)
          Article 0 comments Cited 1383 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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            Effect of treatment delay, age, and stroke severity on the effects of intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase for acute ischaemic stroke: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials

            Jonathan Emberson, Kennedy R Lees, Patrick D Lyden … (2014)
            Summary Background Alteplase is effective for treatment of acute ischaemic stroke but debate continues about its use after longer times since stroke onset, in older patients, and among patients who have had the least or most severe strokes. We assessed the role of these factors in affecting good stroke outcome in patients given alteplase. Methods We did a pre-specified meta-analysis of individual patient data from 6756 patients in nine randomised trials comparing alteplase with placebo or open control. We included all completed randomised phase 3 trials of intravenous alteplase for treatment of acute ischaemic stroke for which data were available. Retrospective checks confirmed that no eligible trials had been omitted. We defined a good stroke outcome as no significant disability at 3–6 months, defined by a modified Rankin Score of 0 or 1. Additional outcomes included symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (defined by type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage within 7 days and, separately, by the SITS-MOST definition of parenchymal type 2 haemorrhage within 36 h), fatal intracranial haemorrhage within 7 days, and 90-day mortality. Findings Alteplase increased the odds of a good stroke outcome, with earlier treatment associated with bigger proportional benefit. Treatment within 3·0 h resulted in a good outcome for 259 (32·9%) of 787 patients who received alteplase versus 176 (23·1%) of 762 who received control (OR 1·75, 95% CI 1·35–2·27); delay of greater than 3·0 h, up to 4·5 h, resulted in good outcome for 485 (35·3%) of 1375 versus 432 (30·1%) of 1437 (OR 1·26, 95% CI 1·05–1·51); and delay of more than 4·5 h resulted in good outcome for 401 (32·6%) of 1229 versus 357 (30·6%) of 1166 (OR 1·15, 95% CI 0·95–1·40). Proportional treatment benefits were similar irrespective of age or stroke severity. Alteplase significantly increased the odds of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage definition 231 [6·8%] of 3391 vs 44 [1·3%] of 3365, OR 5·55, 95% CI 4·01–7·70, p<0·0001; SITS-MOST definition 124 [3·7%] vs 19 [0·6%], OR 6·67, 95% CI 4·11–10·84, p<0·0001) and of fatal intracranial haemorrhage within 7 days (91 [2·7%] vs 13 [0·4%]; OR 7·14, 95% CI 3·98–12·79, p<0·0001). The relative increase in fatal intracranial haemorrhage from alteplase was similar irrespective of treatment delay, age, or stroke severity, but the absolute excess risk attributable to alteplase was bigger among patients who had more severe strokes. There was no excess in other early causes of death and no significant effect on later causes of death. Consequently, mortality at 90 days was 608 (17·9%) in the alteplase group versus 556 (16·5%) in the control group (hazard ratio 1·11, 95% CI 0·99–1·25, p=0·07). Taken together, therefore, despite an average absolute increased risk of early death from intracranial haemorrhage of about 2%, by 3–6 months this risk was offset by an average absolute increase in disability-free survival of about 10% for patients treated within 3·0 h and about 5% for patients treated after 3·0 h, up to 4·5 h. Interpretation Irrespective of age or stroke severity, and despite an increased risk of fatal intracranial haemorrhage during the first few days after treatment, alteplase significantly improves the overall odds of a good stroke outcome when delivered within 4·5 h of stroke onset, with earlier treatment associated with bigger proportional benefits. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, University of Glasgow, University of Edinburgh.
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              Outcomes validity and reliability of the modified Rankin scale: implications for stroke clinical trials: a literature review and synthesis.

              Jamie Banks, Charles A. Marotta (2007)
              The modified Rankin scale (mRS), a clinician-reported measure of global disability, is widely applied for evaluating stroke patient outcomes and as an end point in randomized clinical trials. Extensive evidence on the validity of the mRS exists across a large but fragmented literature. As new treatments for acute ischemic stroke are submitted for agency approval, an appreciation of the mRS's attributes, specifically its relationship to other stroke evaluation scales, would be valuable for decision-makers to properly assess the impact of a new drug on treatment paradigms. The purpose of this report is to assemble and systematically assess the properties of the mRS to provide decision-makers with pertinent evaluative information. A Medline search was conducted to identify reports in the peer-reviewed medical literature (1957-2006) that provide information on the structure, validation, scoring, and psychometric properties of the mRS and its use in clinical trials. The selection of articles was based on defined criteria that included relevance, study design and use of appropriate statistical methods. Of 224 articles identified by the literature search, 50 were selected for detailed assessment. Inter-rater reliability with the mRS is moderate and improves with structured interviews (kappa 0.56 versus 0.78); strong test-re-test reliability (kappa=0.81 to 0.95) has been reported. Numerous studies demonstrate the construct validity of the mRS by its relationships to physiological indicators such as stroke type, lesion size, perfusion and neurological impairment. Convergent validity between the mRS and other disability scales is well documented. Patient comorbidities and socioeconomic factors should be considered in properly applying and interpreting the mRS. Recent analyses suggest that randomized clinical trials of acute stroke treatments may require a smaller sample size if the mRS is used as a primary end point rather than the Barthel Index. Multiple types of evidence attest to the validity and reliability of the mRS. The reported data support the view that the mRS is a valuable instrument for assessing the impact of new stroke treatments.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Title: BMJ Quality & Safety
                Abbreviated Title: BMJ Qual Saf
                Publisher: BMJ
                ISSN (Print): 2044-5415
                ISSN (Electronic): 2044-5423
                Publication date Created: December 15 2015
                Publication date Created: January 2016
                Publication date (Print): January 2016
                Publication date (Electronic): June 26 2015
                Volume: 25
                Issue: 1
                Pages: 38-45
                Article
                DOI: 10.1136/bmjqs-2015-004430
                PubMed ID: 26115667
                SO-VID: 7466de8a-811c-4236-a35b-fa88d07d39ec
                Copyright © © 2015
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