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      Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in Africa and Asia: A systematic review and meta‐analysis of the prevalence in sheep and goats between 1969 and 2018

      research-article
      1 ,
      Veterinary Medicine and Science
      John Wiley and Sons Inc.
      epidemiology, infectious disease, meta‐analysis, PPR, ruminant

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          Abstract

          Background

          Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a prevalent viral disease of sheep and goats that impacts productivity and international animal trade. Despite the substantial economic consequences related to PPR, little is known about the prevalence of this disease at the broad geographical levels.

          Objective

          The present study aimed to use a systematic approach to assess the regional prevalence of PPR in sheep and goats, and the associated factors that contribute to prevalence estimates.

          Methods

          Published articles on PPR in sheep and goats were searched in PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar and the reference lists of articles reporting the prevalence from 1 January 1969 to 31 December 2018. Articles were selected using inclusion and exclusion criteria. Since the heterogeneity among the studies was significant, pooled prevalences were estimated by a random effect meta‐analysis model.

          Results

          Data on the prevalence of PPR were obtained from Africa and Asia, where the pooled prevalence estimates were 40.99% (95% CI: 37.20%–44.79%) and 38.43% (95% CI: 35.64%–41.22%) respectively. Overall, the estimated pooled prevalence at Africa‐Asia level in sheep was 39.31% (95% CI: 35.75%–42.88%) and in goats was 39.57% (95% CI: 36.66%–42.48%). Significant heterogeneity ( I 2 > 80%) was noted in most pooled estimates.

          Conclusion

          The results on the regional prevalence estimates of PPR presented here will be useful in raising awareness and advocating for Governments to engage in initiatives to eradicate PPR and prevent it from spreading to other continents.

          Abstract

          The present study aimed to assess the regional prevalence of Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in sheep and goats and their associated factors that contribute in prevalence estimates using a systematic review and meta‐analysis approach. The results indicate that prevalence of PPR is high at regional context and needs of further prevalence studies in endemic regions. Results presented here will be useful in raising awareness and advocating for Governments to engage in initiatives to eradicate PPR and prevent it from spreading to other continents.

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          Most cited references214

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          Quantifying heterogeneity in a meta-analysis.

          The extent of heterogeneity in a meta-analysis partly determines the difficulty in drawing overall conclusions. This extent may be measured by estimating a between-study variance, but interpretation is then specific to a particular treatment effect metric. A test for the existence of heterogeneity exists, but depends on the number of studies in the meta-analysis. We develop measures of the impact of heterogeneity on a meta-analysis, from mathematical criteria, that are independent of the number of studies and the treatment effect metric. We derive and propose three suitable statistics: H is the square root of the chi2 heterogeneity statistic divided by its degrees of freedom; R is the ratio of the standard error of the underlying mean from a random effects meta-analysis to the standard error of a fixed effect meta-analytic estimate, and I2 is a transformation of (H) that describes the proportion of total variation in study estimates that is due to heterogeneity. We discuss interpretation, interval estimates and other properties of these measures and examine them in five example data sets showing different amounts of heterogeneity. We conclude that H and I2, which can usually be calculated for published meta-analyses, are particularly useful summaries of the impact of heterogeneity. One or both should be presented in published meta-analyses in preference to the test for heterogeneity. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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            Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test.

            Funnel plots (plots of effect estimates against sample size) may be useful to detect bias in meta-analyses that were later contradicted by large trials. We examined whether a simple test of asymmetry of funnel plots predicts discordance of results when meta-analyses are compared to large trials, and we assessed the prevalence of bias in published meta-analyses. Medline search to identify pairs consisting of a meta-analysis and a single large trial (concordance of results was assumed if effects were in the same direction and the meta-analytic estimate was within 30% of the trial); analysis of funnel plots from 37 meta-analyses identified from a hand search of four leading general medicine journals 1993-6 and 38 meta-analyses from the second 1996 issue of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Degree of funnel plot asymmetry as measured by the intercept from regression of standard normal deviates against precision. In the eight pairs of meta-analysis and large trial that were identified (five from cardiovascular medicine, one from diabetic medicine, one from geriatric medicine, one from perinatal medicine) there were four concordant and four discordant pairs. In all cases discordance was due to meta-analyses showing larger effects. Funnel plot asymmetry was present in three out of four discordant pairs but in none of concordant pairs. In 14 (38%) journal meta-analyses and 5 (13%) Cochrane reviews, funnel plot asymmetry indicated that there was bias. A simple analysis of funnel plots provides a useful test for the likely presence of bias in meta-analyses, but as the capacity to detect bias will be limited when meta-analyses are based on a limited number of small trials the results from such analyses should be treated with considerable caution.
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              Assessing risk of bias in prevalence studies: modification of an existing tool and evidence of interrater agreement.

              In the course of performing systematic reviews on the prevalence of low back and neck pain, we required a tool to assess the risk of study bias. Our objectives were to (1) modify an existing checklist and (2) test the final tool for interrater agreement. The final tool consists of 10 items addressing four domains of bias plus a summary risk of bias assessment. Two researchers tested the interrater agreement of the tool by independently assessing 54 randomly selected studies. Interrater agreement overall and for each individual item was assessed using the proportion of agreement and Kappa statistic. Raters found the tool easy to use, and there was high interrater agreement: overall agreement was 91% and the Kappa statistic was 0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.76, 0.86). Agreement was almost perfect for the individual items on the tool and moderate for the summary assessment. We have addressed a research gap by modifying and testing a tool to assess risk of study bias. Further research may be useful for assessing the applicability of the tool across different conditions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                zaman.cvasu@gmail.com
                Journal
                Vet Med Sci
                Vet Med Sci
                10.1002/(ISSN)2053-1095
                VMS3
                Veterinary Medicine and Science
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                2053-1095
                12 June 2020
                November 2020
                : 6
                : 4 ( doiID: 10.1002/vms3.v6.4 )
                : 813-833
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] Department of Medicine & Surgery Chattogram Veterinary & Animal Sciences University (CVASU) Chattogram Bangladesh
                Author notes
                [*] [* ] Correspondence

                Md Ahaduzzaman, Department of Medicine & Surgery, Chattogram Veterinary & Animal Sciences University (CVASU), Chattogram 4225, Bangladesh.

                Email: zaman.cvasu@ 123456gmail.com

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0568-0506
                Article
                VMS3300
                10.1002/vms3.300
                7738735
                32529792
                74b5d660-d4d3-48e8-bb9f-16e90a848987
                © 2020 The Authors. Veterinary Medicine and Science Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 29 January 2020
                : 13 April 2020
                : 22 May 2020
                Page count
                Figures: 9, Tables: 4, Pages: 21, Words: 15189
                Categories
                Original Article
                Original Articles
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                November 2020
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:5.9.5 mode:remove_FC converted:16.12.2020

                epidemiology,infectious disease,meta‐analysis,ppr,ruminant

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