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      DOES MARRIAGE REDUCE CRIME? A COUNTERFACTUAL APPROACH TO WITHIN-INDIVIDUAL CAUSAL EFFECTS

      , ,
      Criminology
      Wiley-Blackwell

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          Observational Studies

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            Marginal structural models to estimate the causal effect of zidovudine on the survival of HIV-positive men.

            Standard methods for survival analysis, such as the time-dependent Cox model, may produce biased effect estimates when there exist time-dependent confounders that are themselves affected by previous treatment or exposure. Marginal structural models are a new class of causal models the parameters of which are estimated through inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting; these models allow for appropriate adjustment for confounding. We describe the marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model and use it to estimate the causal effect of zidovudine on the survival of human immunodeficiency virus-positive men participating in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. In this study, CD4 lymphocyte count is both a time-dependent confounder of the causal effect of zidovudine on survival and is affected by past zidovudine treatment. The crude mortality rate ratio (95% confidence interval) for zidovudine was 3.6 (3.0-4.3), which reflects the presence of confounding. After controlling for baseline CD4 count and other baseline covariates using standard methods, the mortality rate ratio decreased to 2.3 (1.9-2.8). Using a marginal structural Cox model to control further for time-dependent confounding due to CD4 count and other time-dependent covariates, the mortality rate ratio was 0.7 (95% conservative confidence interval = 0.6-1.0). We compare marginal structural models with previously proposed causal methods.
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              Gender, marital status and the social control of health behavior.

              D Umberson (1992)
              Mortality rates are lower for married individuals than they are for unmarried individuals, and marriage seems to be even more beneficial to men than women in this regard. A theoretical model of social integration and social control is developed to explain why this may occur. Drawing from this model, I hypothesize that marriage may be beneficial to health because many spouses monitor and attempt to control their spouse's health behaviors. Furthermore, the provision, receipt, and consequences of these social control efforts may vary for men and women. These hypotheses are considered with analysis of a national panel survey conducted in 1986 (N = 3617) and 1989 (N = 2867). Results show that: (1) marriage is associated with receipt of substantially more efforts to control health for men than women, (2) those who attempt to control the health of others are more likely to be female than male, (3) there is some support for the social control and health behavior hypothesis among the married, and (4) the transition from married to unmarried status is associated with an increase in negative health behavior while the transition from unmarried to married status seems to have little effect on health behavior. A theoretical explanation is developed to explain these marital status differences.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Criminology
                Criminology
                Wiley-Blackwell
                0011-1384
                1745-9125
                August 2006
                August 2006
                : 44
                : 3
                : 465-508
                Article
                10.1111/j.1745-9125.2006.00055.x
                74cf5b85-2592-42fc-b58a-f049be62c8ac
                © 2006

                http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1

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