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      Causal Reasoning: Initial Report of a Naturalistic Study of Causal Inferences

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      9th Bi-annual International Conference on Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM9) (NDM)

      Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM9)

      23 - 26 June 2009

      Causal reasoning, causality, mental models, sensemaking

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          Abstract

          Motivation – This paper describes the initial results of a naturalistic inquiry into the way people derive causal inferences. Research approach – We examined media accounts of economic, political, military, and sports incidents to determine the types of causal explanations that are commonly invoked. Findings – We found two interacting processes at work: the identification of potential causes and the framing of these causes into explanations. Explanations took several forms: abstractions, events, lists (undifferentiated collections of partial causes), conditions, and stories (complex mechanisms linking several causes). Originality – Causal reasoning in “the real world” is both different from and far richer than the formal causal accounts found in philosophy, and from the determinate search for causes during scientific problem solving. Takeaway message – By understanding the way causal reasoning is done in natural settings we should be better able to help decision makers diagnose problems and anticipate consequences.

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          Most cited references 4

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          Propensities and counterfactuals: The loser that almost won.

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            Judging probable cause.

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              Keeping it too simple: how the reductive tendency affects cognitive engineering

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Conference
                June 2009
                June 2009
                : 83-90
                Affiliations
                Applied Research Associates
                Florida Institute of Human Machine Cognition
                Article
                10.14236/ewic/NDM2009.7
                © Gary Klein et al. Published by BCS Learning and Development Ltd. 9th Bi-annual International Conference on Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM9), BCS London

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                9th Bi-annual International Conference on Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM9)
                NDM
                9
                BCS London
                23 - 26 June 2009
                Electronic Workshops in Computing (eWiC)
                Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM9)
                Product
                Product Information: 1477-9358BCS Learning & Development
                Self URI (journal page): https://ewic.bcs.org/
                Categories
                Electronic Workshops in Computing

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