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      Clinical prediction rules for failed nonoperative reduction of intussusception

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          Abstract

          Purpose

          The nonoperative reduction of intussusception in children can be performed safely if there are no contraindications. Many risk factors associated with failed reduction were defined. The aim of this study was to develop a scoring system for predicting the failure of nonoperative reduction using various determinants.

          Patients and methods

          The data were collected from Chiang Mai University Hospital and Siriraj Hospital from January 2006 to December 2012. Inclusion criteria consisted of patients with intussusception aged 0–15 years with no contraindications for nonoperative reduction. The clinical prediction rules were developed using significant risk factors from the multivariable analysis.

          Results

          A total of 170 patients with intussusception were included in the study. In the final analysis model, 154 patients were used for identifying the significant risk factors of failure of reduction. Ten factors clustering by the age of 3 years were identified and used for developing the clinical prediction rules, and the factors were as follows: body weight <12 kg (relative risk [RR] =1.48, P=0.004), duration of symptoms >48 hours (RR =1.26, P<0.001), vomiting (RR =1.63, P<0.001), rectal bleeding (RR =1.50, P<0.001), abdominal distension (RR =1.60, P=0.003), temperature >37.8°C (RR =1.51, P<0.001), palpable mass (RR =1.26, P<0.001), location of mass (left over right side RR =1.48, P<0.001), ultrasound showed poor prognostic signs (RR =1.35, P<0.001), and the method of reduction (hydrostatic over pneumatic, RR =1.34, P=0.023). Prediction scores ranged from 0 to 16. A high-risk group (scores 12–16) predicted a greater chance of reduction failure (likelihood ratio of positive [LR+] =18.22, P<0.001). A low-risk group (score 0–11) predicted a lower chance of reduction failure (LR+ =0.79, P<0.001). The performance of the scoring model was 80.68% (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve).

          Conclusion

          This scoring guideline was used to predict the results of nonoperative reduction and forecast the prognosis of the failed reduction. The usefulness of these prediction scores is for informing the parents before the reduction. This scoring system can be used as a guide to promote the possible referral of the cases to tertiary centers with facilities for nonoperative reduction if possible.

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          Most cited references 16

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          Childhood Intussusception: A Literature Review

          Background Postlicensure data has identified a causal link between rotavirus vaccines and intussusception in some settings. As rotavirus vaccines are introduced globally, monitoring intussusception will be crucial for ensuring safety of the vaccine programs. Methods To obtain updated information on background rates and clinical management of intussusception, we reviewed studies of intussusception in children <18 years of age published since 2002. We assessed the incidence of intussusception by month of life among children <1 year of age, seasonality, method of diagnosis, treatment, and case-fatality. Findings We identified 82 studies from North America, Asia, Europe, Oceania, Africa, Eastern Mediterranean, and Central & South America that reported a total of 44,454 intussusception events. The mean incidence of intussusception was 74 per 100,000 (range: 9–328) among children <1 year of age, with peak incidence among infants 5–7 months of age. No seasonal patterns were observed. A radiographic modality was used to diagnose intussusception in over 95% of the cases in all regions except Africa where clinical findings or surgery were used in 65% of the cases. Surgical rates were substantially higher in Africa (77%) and Central and South America (86%) compared to other regions (13–29%). Case-fatality also was higher in Africa (9%) compared to other regions (<1%). The primary limitation of this review relates to the heterogeneity in intussusception surveillance across different regions. Conclusion This review of the intussusception literature from the past decade provides pertinent information that should facilitate implementation of intussusception surveillance for monitoring the postlicensure safety of rotavirus vaccines.
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            Clinical case definition for the diagnosis of acute intussusception.

            Because of the reported association between intussusception and a rotavirus vaccine, future clinical trials of rotavirus vaccines will need to include intussusception surveillance in the evaluation of vaccine safety. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a clinical case definition for the diagnosis of acute intussusception. A clinical case definition for the diagnosis of acute intussusception was developed by analysis of an extensive literature review that defined the clinical presentation of intussusception in 70 developed and developing countries. The clinical case definition was then assessed for sensitivity and specificity using a retrospective chart review of hospital admissions. Sensitivity of the clinical case definition was assessed in children diagnosed with intussusception over a 6.5-year period. Specificity was assessed in patients aged <2 years admitted with bowel obstruction and in patients aged <19 years presenting with symptoms that may occur in intussusception. The clinical case definition accurately identified 185 of 191 assessable cases as "probable" intussusception and six cases as "possible" intussusception (sensitivity, 97%). No case of radiologic or surgically proven intussusception failed to be identified by the clinical case definition. The specificity of the definition in correctly identifying patients who did not have intussusception ranged from 87% to 91%. The clinical case definition for intussusception may assist in the prompt identification of patients with intussusception and may provide an important tool for the future trials of enteric vaccines.
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              Ultrasound-guided hydrostatic reduction of intussusceptions by saline enema: a review of 5218 cases in 17 years.

              The aim of this study was to evaluate the results of ultrasound (US)-guided hydrostatic reduction (UGSED) of intussusceptions in pediatric patients by saline enema. Five thousand two hundred eighteen pediatric patients with intussusceptions treated by UGSED from October 1985 to October 2002 were reviewed retrospectively. The success rate of reduction in 5218 patients was 95.5%. Two hundred thirty-seven patients (4.5%) underwent surgery. Colonic perforation occurred in 9 patients (0.17%). Two infants suffered from milk aspiration because of vomiting during the hydrostatic enema reduction. There was no mortality. UGSED of intussusceptions avoids radiation exposure. It is reliable and safe. It has high success rate and minimal complications. It is a perfect method for the nonoperative treatment of pediatric intussusception and can be widely used as routine therapy.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Ther Clin Risk Manag
                Ther Clin Risk Manag
                Therapeutics and Clinical Risk Management
                Therapeutics and Clinical Risk Management
                Dove Medical Press
                1176-6336
                1178-203X
                2016
                13 September 2016
                : 12
                : 1411-1416
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Surgery, Division of Pediatric Surgery, Chiang Mai University Hospital, Chiang Mai
                [2 ]Center of Excellence in Applied Epidemiology, Thammasat University Hospital, Bangkok
                [3 ]Department of Pediatrics, Division of Gastroenterology, Chiang Mai University Hospital, Chiang Mai
                [4 ]Department of Surgery, Division of Pediatric Surgery, Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok
                [5 ]Department of Radiology, Chiang Mai University Hospital, Chiang Mai, Thailand
                Author notes
                Correspondence: Jesda Singhavejsakul, Department of Surgery, Division of Pediatric Surgery, Chiang Mai University Hospital, 110 Intavaroros Road, Sriphum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand, Tel +66 81 992 9767, Fax +66 53 93 6139, Email pedsurgerycmu@ 123456gmail.com
                Article
                tcrm-12-1411
                10.2147/TCRM.S115253
                5028175
                © 2016 Khorana et al. This work is published and licensed by Dove Medical Press Limited

                The full terms of this license are available at https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php and incorporate the Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial (unported, v3.0) License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/). By accessing the work you hereby accept the Terms. Non-commercial uses of the work are permitted without any further permission from Dove Medical Press Limited, provided the work is properly attributed.

                Categories
                Original Research

                Medicine

                clinical prediction rules, intussusception, failure rate, nonoperative reduction

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