Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming

Understanding and forecasting current and future consequences of coastal warming require a fine-scale assessment of the near-shore temperature changes. Here we show that despite the fact that 71% of the world's coastlines are significantly warming, rates of change have been highly heterogeneous both spatially and seasonally. We demonstrate that 46% of the coastlines have experienced a significant decrease in the frequency of extremely cold events, while extremely hot days are becoming more common in 38% of the area. Also, we show that the onset of the warm season is significantly advancing earlier in the year in 36% of the temperate coastal regions. More importantly, it is now possible to analyse local patterns within the global context, which is useful for a broad array of scientific fields, policy makers and general public.

The long-term effects of ocean warming on prokaryotic communities are unknown because of lack of historical data. We overcame this gap by applying a retrospective molecular analysis to the bacterial community on formalin-fixed samples from the historical Continuous Plankton Recorder archive, which is one of the longest and most geographically extensive collections of marine biological samples in the world. We showed that during the last half century, ubiquitous marine bacteria of the Vibrio genus, including Vibrio cholerae, increased in dominance within the plankton-associated bacterial community of the North Sea, where an unprecedented increase in bathing infections related to these bacteria was recently reported. Among environmental variables, increased sea surface temperature explained 45% of the variance in Vibrio data, supporting the view that ocean warming is favouring the spread of vibrios and may be the cause of the globally increasing trend in their associated diseases.

Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus are ubiquitous Gram-negative bacterial pathogens found naturally in marine and estuarine waters, and are a leading cause of seafood-associated bacterial illness. These pathogens are commonly reported in the USA and in many Asian countries, including China, Japan and Taiwan; however, there is growing concern that V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus may represent an important and increasing clinical problem in Europe. Several factors underlie the need for a greater understanding of these non-cholera vibrios within a European context. First, there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus infections are increasing, and tend to follow regional climatic trends, with outbreaks typically following episodes of unusually warm weather. Such findings are especially alarming given current predictions regarding warming of marine waters as a result of global climatic change. Second, a myriad of epidemiological factors may greatly increase the incidence as well as clinical burden of these pathogens - including increasing global consumption and trade of seafood produce coupled to an increase in the number of susceptible individuals consuming seafood produce. Finally, there is currently a lack of detailed surveillance information regarding non-cholerae Vibrio infections in Europe, as these pathogens are not notifiable in many countries, which probably masks the true clinical burden of many human infections. This review will present a pertinent overview of both the environmental occurrence and clinical impact of V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus in Europe. © 2010 Crown copyright.