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      Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change

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      Climate Dynamics

      Springer Nature

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          Most cited references 31

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          The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)

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            A New Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Boundary Dataset for the Community Atmosphere Model

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              Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes.

              Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20 degrees N.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Climate Dynamics
                Clim Dyn
                Springer Nature
                0930-7575
                1432-0894
                February 2014
                March 2013
                : 42
                : 3-4
                : 617-627
                Article
                10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0
                © 2014
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