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      Lactate Clearance and Vasopressor Seem to Be Predictors for Mortality in Severe Sepsis Patients with Lactic Acidosis Supplementing Sodium Bicarbonate: A Retrospective Analysis

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          Abstract

          Introduction

          Initial lactate level, lactate clearance, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin in critically ill patients with sepsis are associated with hospital mortality. However, no study has yet discovered which factor is most important for mortality in severe sepsis patients with lactic acidosis. We sought to clarify this issue in patients with lactic acidosis who were supplementing with sodium bicarbonate.

          Materials and Methods

          Data were collected from a single center between May 2011 and April 2014. One hundred nine patients with severe sepsis and lactic acidosis who were supplementing with sodium bicarbonate were included.

          Results

          The 7-day mortality rate was 71.6%. The survivors had higher albumin levels and lower SOFA, APACHE II scores, vasopressor use, and follow-up lactate levels at an elapsed time after their initial lactate levels were checked. In particular, a decrement in lactate clearance of at least 10% for the first 6 hours, 24 hours, and 48 hours of treatment was more dominant among survivors than non-survivors. Although the patients who were treated with broad-spectrum antibiotics showed higher illness severity than those who received conventional antibiotics, there was no significant mortality difference. 6-hour, 24-hour, and 48-hour lactate clearance (HR: 4.000, 95% CI: 1.309–12.219, P = 0.015) and vasopressor use (HR: 4.156, 95% CI: 1.461–11.824, P = 0.008) were significantly associated with mortality after adjusting for confounding variables.

          Conclusions

          Lactate clearance at a discrete time point seems to be a more reliable prognostic index than initial lactate value in severe sepsis patients with lactic acidosis who were supplementing with sodium bicarbonate. Careful consideration of vasopressor use and the initial application of broad-spectrum antibiotics within the first 48 hours may be helpful for improving survival, and further study is warranted.

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          Most cited references 19

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          Longitudinal data analysis for discrete and continuous outcomes.

           K Liang,  S Zeger,  David Shay (1986)
          Longitudinal data sets are comprised of repeated observations of an outcome and a set of covariates for each of many subjects. One objective of statistical analysis is to describe the marginal expectation of the outcome variable as a function of the covariates while accounting for the correlation among the repeated observations for a given subject. This paper proposes a unifying approach to such analysis for a variety of discrete and continuous outcomes. A class of generalized estimating equations (GEEs) for the regression parameters is proposed. The equations are extensions of those used in quasi-likelihood (Wedderburn, 1974, Biometrika 61, 439-447) methods. The GEEs have solutions which are consistent and asymptotically Gaussian even when the time dependence is misspecified as we often expect. A consistent variance estimate is presented. We illustrate the use of the GEE approach with longitudinal data from a study of the effect of mothers' stress on children's morbidity.
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            Early lactate clearance is associated with improved outcome in severe sepsis and septic shock.

            Serial lactate concentrations can be used to examine disease severity in the intensive care unit. This study examines the clinical utility of the lactate clearance before intensive care unit admission (during the most proximal period of disease presentation) as an indicator of outcome in severe sepsis and septic shock. We hypothesize that a high lactate clearance in 6 hrs is associated with decreased mortality rate. Prospective observational study. An urban emergency department and intensive care unit over a 1-yr period. A convenience cohort of patients with severe sepsis or septic shock. Therapy was initiated in the emergency department and continued in the intensive care unit, including central venous and arterial catheterization, antibiotics, fluid resuscitation, mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, and inotropes when appropriate. Vital signs, laboratory values, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score were obtained at hour 0 (emergency department presentation), hour 6, and over the first 72 hrs of hospitalization. Therapy given in the emergency department and intensive care unit was recorded. Lactate clearance was defined as the percent decrease in lactate from emergency department presentation to hour 6. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine independent variables associated with mortality. One hundred and eleven patients were enrolled with mean age 64.9 +/- 16.7 yrs, emergency department length of stay 6.3 +/- 3.2 hrs, and overall in-hospital mortality rate 42.3%. Baseline APACHE II score was 20.2 +/- 6.8 and lactate 6.9 +/- 4.6 mmol/L. Survivors compared with nonsurvivors had a lactate clearance of 38.1 +/- 34.6 vs. 12.0 +/- 51.6%, respectively (p =.005). Multivariate logistic regression analysis of statistically significant univariate variables showed lactate clearance to have a significant inverse relationship with mortality (p =.04). There was an approximately 11% decrease likelihood of mortality for each 10% increase in lactate clearance. Patients with a lactate clearance> or =10%, relative to patients with a lactate clearance <10%, had a greater decrease in APACHE II score over the 72-hr study period and a lower 60-day mortality rate (p =.007). Lactate clearance early in the hospital course may indicate a resolution of global tissue hypoxia and is associated with decreased mortality rate. Patients with higher lactate clearance after 6 hrs of emergency department intervention have improved outcome compared with those with lower lactate clearance.
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              Estimation of the Youden Index and its associated cutoff point.

              The Youden Index is a frequently used summary measure of the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve. It both, measures the effectiveness of a diagnostic marker and enables the selection of an optimal threshold value (cutoff point) for the marker. In this paper we compare several estimation procedures for the Youden Index and its associated cutoff point. These are based on (1) normal assumptions; (2) transformations to normality; (3) the empirical distribution function; (4) kernel smoothing. These are compared in terms of bias and root mean square error in a large variety of scenarios by means of an extensive simulation study. We find that the empirical method which is the most commonly used has the overall worst performance. In the estimation of the Youden Index the kernel is generally the best unless the data can be well transformed to achieve normality whereas in estimation of the optimal threshold value results are more variable.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                21 December 2015
                2015
                : 10
                : 12
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Internal Medicine, Dong-A University, Busan, Korea
                [2 ]Institute of Medical Science, Dong-A University College of Medicine, Busan, Korea
                Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi, ITALY
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Conceived and designed the experiments: WSA. Performed the experiments: SML SEK EBK HJJ YKS WSA. Analyzed the data: SML WSA. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: SML SEK EBK HJJ YKS WSA. Wrote the paper: SML SEK WSA.

                Article
                PONE-D-15-37003
                10.1371/journal.pone.0145181
                4686961
                26692209
                © 2015 Lee et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

                Page count
                Figures: 2, Tables: 4, Pages: 14
                Product
                Funding
                This study was supported by research funds from Dong-A University.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Custom metadata
                All relevant data are within the paper.

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