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      Coffee consumption and health: umbrella review of meta-analyses of multiple health outcomes

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          Abstract

          Objectives To evaluate the existing evidence for associations between coffee consumption and multiple health outcomes.

          Design Umbrella review of the evidence across meta-analyses of observational and interventional studies of coffee consumption and any health outcome.

          Data sources PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and screening of references.

          Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Meta-analyses of both observational and interventional studies that examined the associations between coffee consumption and any health outcome in any adult population in all countries and all settings. Studies of genetic polymorphisms for coffee metabolism were excluded.

          Results The umbrella review identified 201 meta-analyses of observational research with 67 unique health outcomes and 17 meta-analyses of interventional research with nine unique outcomes. Coffee consumption was more often associated with benefit than harm for a range of health outcomes across exposures including high versus low, any versus none, and one extra cup a day. There was evidence of a non-linear association between consumption and some outcomes, with summary estimates indicating largest relative risk reduction at intakes of three to four cups a day versus none, including all cause mortality (relative risk 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 0.88), cardiovascular mortality (0.81, 0.72 to 0.90), and cardiovascular disease (0.85, 0.80 to 0.90). High versus low consumption was associated with an 18% lower risk of incident cancer (0.82, 0.74 to 0.89). Consumption was also associated with a lower risk of several specific cancers and neurological, metabolic, and liver conditions. Harmful associations were largely nullified by adequate adjustment for smoking, except in pregnancy, where high versus low/no consumption was associated with low birth weight (odds ratio 1.31, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.67), preterm birth in the first (1.22, 1.00 to 1.49) and second (1.12, 1.02 to 1.22) trimester, and pregnancy loss (1.46, 1.06 to 1.99). There was also an association between coffee drinking and risk of fracture in women but not in men.

          Conclusion Coffee consumption seems generally safe within usual levels of intake, with summary estimates indicating largest risk reduction for various health outcomes at three to four cups a day, and more likely to benefit health than harm. Robust randomised controlled trials are needed to understand whether the observed associations are causal. Importantly, outside of pregnancy, existing evidence suggests that coffee could be tested as an intervention without significant risk of causing harm. Women at increased risk of fracture should possibly be excluded.

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          Most cited references 113

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          GRADE guidelines: 1. Introduction-GRADE evidence profiles and summary of findings tables.

          This article is the first of a series providing guidance for use of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system of rating quality of evidence and grading strength of recommendations in systematic reviews, health technology assessments (HTAs), and clinical practice guidelines addressing alternative management options. The GRADE process begins with asking an explicit question, including specification of all important outcomes. After the evidence is collected and summarized, GRADE provides explicit criteria for rating the quality of evidence that include study design, risk of bias, imprecision, inconsistency, indirectness, and magnitude of effect. Recommendations are characterized as strong or weak (alternative terms conditional or discretionary) according to the quality of the supporting evidence and the balance between desirable and undesirable consequences of the alternative management options. GRADE suggests summarizing evidence in succinct, transparent, and informative summary of findings tables that show the quality of evidence and the magnitude of relative and absolute effects for each important outcome and/or as evidence profiles that provide, in addition, detailed information about the reason for the quality of evidence rating. Subsequent articles in this series will address GRADE's approach to formulating questions, assessing quality of evidence, and developing recommendations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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            Methods for trend estimation from summarized dose-response data, with applications to meta-analysis.

            Meta-analysis often requires pooling of correlated estimates to compute regression slopes (trends) across different exposure or treatment levels. The authors propose two methods that account for the correlations but require only the summary estimates and marginal data from the studies. These methods provide more efficient estimates of regression slope, more accurate variance estimates, and more valid heterogeneity tests than those previously available. One method also allows estimation of nonlinear trend components, such as quadratic effects. The authors illustrate these methods in a meta-analysis of alcohol use and breast cancer.
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              AMSTAR is a reliable and valid measurement tool to assess the methodological quality of systematic reviews.

              Our purpose was to measure the agreement, reliability, construct validity, and feasibility of a measurement tool to assess systematic reviews (AMSTAR). We randomly selected 30 systematic reviews from a database. Each was assessed by two reviewers using: (1) the enhanced quality assessment questionnaire (Overview of Quality Assessment Questionnaire [OQAQ]); (2) Sacks' instrument; and (3) our newly developed measurement tool (AMSTAR). We report on reliability (interobserver kappas of the 11 AMSTAR items), intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) of the sum scores, construct validity (ICCs of the sum scores of AMSTAR compared with those of other instruments), and completion times. The interrater agreement of the individual items of AMSTAR was substantial with a mean kappa of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57, 0.83) (range: 0.38-1.0). Kappas recorded for the other instruments were 0.63 (95% CI: 0.38, 0.78) for enhanced OQAQ and 0.40 (95% CI: 0.29, 0.50) for the Sacks' instrument. The ICC of the total score for AMSTAR was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.65, 0.92) compared with 0.91 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.96) for OQAQ and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.94) for the Sacks' instrument. AMSTAR proved easy to apply, each review taking about 15 minutes to complete. AMSTAR has good agreement, reliability, construct validity, and feasibility. These findings need confirmation by a broader range of assessors and a more diverse range of reviews.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: specialty registrar in public health
                Role: graduate medical student
                Role: professor of public health
                Role: NHS Research Scotland senior clinical fellow
                Role: professor of hepatology
                Role: associate professor of public health
                Journal
                BMJ
                BMJ
                bmj
                The BMJ
                BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.
                0959-8138
                1756-1833
                2017
                21 November 2017
                : 359
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Academic Unit of Primary Care and Population Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, South Academic Block, Southampton General Hospital, Southampton, Hampshire SO16 6YD, UK
                [2 ]Medical Research Council/University of Edinburgh Centre for Inflammation Research, Queen’s Medical Research Institute, Edinburgh, EH16 4TJ, UK
                Author notes
                Correspondence to: R Poole r.poole@ 123456soton.ac.uk
                Article
                poor039281
                10.1136/bmj.j5024
                5696634
                29167102
                Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions

                This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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