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      Ecological factors associated with dengue fever in a central highlands Province, Vietnam

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          Dengue is a leading cause of severe illness and hospitalization in Vietnam. This study sought to elucidate the linkage between climate factors, mosquito indices and dengue incidence.


          Monthly data on dengue cases and mosquito larval indices were ascertained between 2004 and 2008 in the Dak Lak province (Vietnam). Temperature, sunshine, rainfall and humidity were also recorded as monthly averages. The association between these ecological factors and dengue was assessed by the Poisson regression model with adjustment for seasonality.


          During the study period, 3,502 cases of dengue fever were reported. Approximately 72% of cases were reported from July to October. After adjusting for seasonality, the incidence of dengue fever was significantly associated with the following factors: higher household index (risk ratio [RR]: 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.62-1.70 per 5% increase), higher container index (RR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.73-1.83 per 5% increase), and higher Breteau index (RR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.53-1.60 per 5 unit increase). The risk of dengue was also associated with elevated temperature (RR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.25-1.55 per 2°C increase), higher humidity (RR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.51-1.67 per 5% increase), and higher rainfall (RR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.21-1.74 per 50 mm increase). The risk of dengue was inversely associated with duration of sunshine, the number of dengue cases being lower as the sunshine increases (RR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.73-0.79 per 50 hours increase).


          These data suggest that indices of mosquito and climate factors are main determinants of dengue fever in Vietnam. This finding suggests that the global climate change will likely increase the burden of dengue fever infection in Vietnam, and that intensified surveillance and control of mosquito during high temperature and rainfall seasons may be an important strategy for containing the burden of dengue fever.

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          Most cited references 22

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          Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model.

          Existing theoretical models of the potential effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases do not account for social factors such as population increase, or interactions between climate variables. Our aim was to investigate the potential effects of global climate change on human health, and in particular, on the transmission of vector-borne diseases. We modelled the reported global distribution of dengue fever on the basis of vapour pressure, which is a measure of humidity. We assessed changes in the geographical limits of dengue fever transmission, and in the number of people at risk of dengue by incorporating future climate change and human population projections into our model. We showed that the current geographical limits of dengue fever transmission can be modelled with 89% accuracy on the basis of long-term average vapour pressure. In 1990, almost 30% of the world population, 1.5 billion people, lived in regions where the estimated risk of dengue transmission was greater than 50%. With population and climate change projections for 2085, we estimate that about 5-6 billion people (50-60% of the projected global population) would be at risk of dengue transmission, compared with 3.5 billion people, or 35% of the population, if climate change did not happen. We conclude that climate change is likely to increase the area of land with a climate suitable for dengue fever transmission, and that if no other contributing factors were to change, a large proportion of the human population would then be put at risk.
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            Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis.

            Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct influence on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. This evidence has been assessed at the continental level in order to determine the possible consequences of the expected future climate change. By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.0-3.5 degrees C, increasing the likelihood of many vector-borne diseases in new areas. The greatest effect of climate change on transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission occurs. For many diseases these lie in the range 14-18 degrees C at the lower end and about 35-40 degrees C at the upper end. Malaria and dengue fever are among the most important vector-borne diseases in the tropics and subtropics; Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the USA and Europe. Encephalitis is also becoming a public health concern. Health risks due to climatic changes will differ between countries that have developed health infrastructures and those that do not. Human settlement patterns in the different regions will influence disease trends. While 70% of the population in South America is urbanized, the proportion in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 45%. Climatic anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon and resulting in drought and floods are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. They have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa, Asia and South America. Climate change has far-reaching consequences and touches on all life-support systems. It is therefore a factor that should be placed high among those that affect human health and survival.
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              Dengue virus-mosquito interactions.

              The mosquito Aedes aegypti is more widely dispersed now than at any time in the past, placing billions of humans at risk of infection with one or more of the four dengue viruses. This review presents and discusses information on mosquito-dengue infection dynamics and describes the prominent role that temperature and rainfall play in controlling dengue viral transmission including discussions of the effect of interannual climate variations and the predicted effect of global warming. Complementary human determinants of dengue epidemiology include viremia titer, variation in viremic period, enhanced viremias, and threshold viremia. Topics covered include epidemiological phenomena such as traveling waves, the generation of genetic diversity of dengue viruses following virgin soil introductions and in hyperendemic settings, and evidence for and against viral virulence as a determinant of the severity of dengue infections. Also described is the crucial role of monotypic and heterotypic herd immunity in shaping dengue epidemic behavior.

                Author and article information

                BMC Infect Dis
                BMC Infectious Diseases
                BioMed Central
                16 June 2011
                : 11
                : 172
                [1 ]Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology of Tay Nguyen, Dak Lak, Vietnam
                [2 ]Vietnam Field Epidemiology Training Programme (FETP), Hanoi, Vietnam
                Copyright ©2011 Pham et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

                This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                Research Article

                Infectious disease & Microbiology


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