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      Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

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          Abstract

          Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km 2 ), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii , already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species’ physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss , is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.

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          Most cited references46

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          The Natural Flow Regime

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            TOWARD A METABOLIC THEORY OF ECOLOGY

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              Uninformative Parameters and Model Selection Using Akaike's Information Criterion

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
                Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.
                Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
                0027-8424
                1091-6490
                August 23 2011
                August 15 2011
                August 23 2011
                : 108
                : 34
                : 14175-14180
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Trout Unlimited, Boise, ID 83702;
                [2 ]US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Boise, ID 83702;
                [3 ]Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1474;
                [4 ]US Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Corvallis, OR 97331;
                [5 ]US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT 59801;
                [6 ]Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-5672;
                [7 ]US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Seeley Lake, MT 59868; and
                [8 ]Trout Unlimited, Medford, OR 97501
                Article
                10.1073/pnas.1103097108
                3161569
                21844354
                78f8646c-20e0-4fdc-adc2-6a7f008a4390
                © 2011
                History

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