Characterising Disruptive Events to Model Cascade Failures in Critical Infrastructures

It has been strongly recognized that increasing use of information technology (IT) in business operations has increased the risk of cascading failures in interdependent critical infrastructures (CIs). Dependencies are primarily due to services and resources that CIs must provide one another to maintain vital functions of the society. From a crisis management perspective, magnitudes of such interrelationships strongly rely on specific nature of disruptive events. This paper adopts a system dynamics modelling approach for simulation and analysis of disruption scenarios. We seek to characterize CI disruptions according to relevant aspects of risk assessment and response coordination as well as environmental, human, economic and other impact factors. Results are key to the design of a cyber incident early warning system for CI operators.

Content

Author and article information

Contributors

Elisa Canzani

Helmut Kaufmann

Ulrike Lechne

Conference

Publication date: August 2016

Publication date (Print): August 2016

Pages: 95-102

Affiliations

[0001]Universität der Bundeswehr

München

Neubiberg, Germany

[0002]Faculty I – Electrical Engineering

Airbus Defense and Space

Ottobrunn, Germany

Article

DOI: 10.14236/ewic/ICS2016.11

SO-VID: 7905091c-2ea4-4096-b819-3a7f197441f2

License:

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Conference name: 4th International Symposium for ICS & SCADA Cyber Security Research 2016

Conference acronym: ICS-CSR

Conference number: 4

Conference location: Queen’s Belfast University, UK

Conference date: 23 - 25 August 2016

Conference sponsor: Electronic Workshops in Computing (eWiC)

Conference theme: Cyber Security Research

History

Product

1477-9358 BCS Learning & Development

Self URI (article page): https://www.scienceopen.com/hosted-document?doi=10.14236/ewic/ICS2016.11

Self URI (journal page): https://ewic.bcs.org/

REFERENCES

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S. V. Buldyrev et al 2010 Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks Nature 464 7291 1025 1028 doi:10.1038/nature08932
E. Canzani 2016 Modeling Dynamics of Disruptive Events for Impact Analysis in Networked Critical Infrastructures Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management ISCRAM 2016
E. CasalicchioE. Galli 2008 Metrics for quantifying interdependencies Critical Infrastructure Protection II M. PapaS. Shenoi Springer 215 227
S. E. Chang et al 2002 Linking infrastructure and urban economy: Simulation of water-disruption impacts in earthquakes Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 29 281 301 doi: 10.1068/b2789
Intel Security 2015 Critical Infrastructure Readiness Report: Holding the Line Against Cyberthreats 1 8 doi: 10.1007/978-3-54068056-7
Kaufmann et al 2014 A structural design for a pan-European early warning system for critical infrastructures Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik. Springer Verlag Wien doi: 10.1007/s00502-015-0286-5
R. Langner 2013 To Kill a Centrifuge: A Technical Analysis of What Stuxnet’s Creators Tried to Achieve Langner Group Arlington, VA
A. Laugé et al 2015 Critical infrastructure dependencies: A holistic, dynamic and quantitative approach nternational Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection 8 16 23 doi: 10.1016/j.ijcip.2014.12.004
M. K. LindellC. S. Prater 2003 Assessing Community Impacts of Natural Disasters Natural Hazards Review 4 4 176 185 doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2003)4:4(176)
H. A. M. Luiijf et al 2010 Empirical findings on European critical infrastructure dependencies International Journal of System of Systems Engineering 2 doi:10.1504/IJSSE.2010.035378
R. MattioliC. Levy-Benchton 2014 Methodologies for the identification of Critical Information Infrastructure assets and services ENISA doi: 10.2824/38100
M. Ouyang 2014 Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems Reliability Engineering and System Safety 121 43 60 doi:10.1016/j.ress.2013.06.040
Rinaldi et al 2001 Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies IEEE Control Systems Magazine 21 11 25 doi:10.1109/37.969131
G. Settanni et al 2015 A Blueprint for a PanEuropean Cyber Incident Analysis System 3rd International Symposium for ICS & SCADA Cyber Security Research 2015 84 88
SPIEGEL ONLINE 2011 Anti-Virus Pioneer Evegeny Kaspersky: I fear the net will become soon a war zone ext-link-type="uri" xlink: href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/anti-virus-pioneer-evgeny-kaspersky-i-fear-the-net-will-soon-become-a-war-zone-a-770191.html">http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/anti-virus-pioneer-evgeny-kaspersky-i-fear-the-net-will-soon-become-a-war-zone-a-770191.html May 20 2011
J. D. Sterman 2000 Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World Irwin/McGraw-Hill
M. Theoharidou et al 2009 RISK-BASED CRITICALITY ANALYSIS International Conference on Critical Infrastructure Protection Springer Berlin Heidelberg 35 49
U.S. Depeartment of Homeland Security 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan 2009 Washington DC

Comments

Comment on this article

[1] 2008/114/EC-Council Directive 2008 Identification and designation of European Critical Infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection Official Journal of the European Union

[2] S. V. Buldyrev et al 2010 Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks Nature 464 7291 1025 1028 doi:10.1038/nature08932

[3] E. Canzani 2016 Modeling Dynamics of Disruptive Events for Impact Analysis in Networked Critical Infrastructures Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management ISCRAM 2016

[4] E. CasalicchioE. Galli 2008 Metrics for quantifying interdependencies Critical Infrastructure Protection II M. PapaS. Shenoi Springer 215 227

[5] S. E. Chang et al 2002 Linking infrastructure and urban economy: Simulation of water-disruption impacts in earthquakes Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 29 281 301 doi: 10.1068/b2789

[6] Intel Security 2015 Critical Infrastructure Readiness Report: Holding the Line Against Cyberthreats 1 8 doi: 10.1007/978-3-54068056-7

[7] Kaufmann et al 2014 A structural design for a pan-European early warning system for critical infrastructures Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik. Springer Verlag Wien doi: 10.1007/s00502-015-0286-5

[8] R. Langner 2013 To Kill a Centrifuge: A Technical Analysis of What Stuxnet’s Creators Tried to Achieve Langner Group Arlington, VA

[9] A. Laugé et al 2015 Critical infrastructure dependencies: A holistic, dynamic and quantitative approach nternational Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection 8 16 23 doi: 10.1016/j.ijcip.2014.12.004

[10] M. K. LindellC. S. Prater 2003 Assessing Community Impacts of Natural Disasters Natural Hazards Review 4 4 176 185 doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2003)4:4(176)

[11] H. A. M. Luiijf et al 2010 Empirical findings on European critical infrastructure dependencies International Journal of System of Systems Engineering 2 doi:10.1504/IJSSE.2010.035378

[12] R. MattioliC. Levy-Benchton 2014 Methodologies for the identification of Critical Information Infrastructure assets and services ENISA doi: 10.2824/38100

[13] M. Ouyang 2014 Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems Reliability Engineering and System Safety 121 43 60 doi:10.1016/j.ress.2013.06.040

[14] Rinaldi et al 2001 Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies IEEE Control Systems Magazine 21 11 25 doi:10.1109/37.969131

[15] G. Settanni et al 2015 A Blueprint for a PanEuropean Cyber Incident Analysis System 3rd International Symposium for ICS & SCADA Cyber Security Research 2015 84 88

[16] SPIEGEL ONLINE 2011 Anti-Virus Pioneer Evegeny Kaspersky: I fear the net will become soon a war zone ext-link-type="uri" xlink: href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/anti-virus-pioneer-evgeny-kaspersky-i-fear-the-net-will-soon-become-a-war-zone-a-770191.html">http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/anti-virus-pioneer-evgeny-kaspersky-i-fear-the-net-will-soon-become-a-war-zone-a-770191.html May 20 2011

[17] J. D. Sterman 2000 Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World Irwin/McGraw-Hill

[18] M. Theoharidou et al 2009 RISK-BASED CRITICALITY ANALYSIS International Conference on Critical Infrastructure Protection Springer Berlin Heidelberg 35 49

[19] U.S. Depeartment of Homeland Security 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan 2009 Washington DC

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