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      The Effect of Climate Change on the Variability of the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex

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          Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes.

          Observations show that large variations in the strength of the stratospheric circulation, appearing first above approximately 50 kilometers, descend to the lowermost stratosphere and are followed by anomalous tropospheric weather regimes. During the 60 days after the onset of these events, average surface pressure maps resemble closely the Arctic Oscillation pattern. These stratospheric events also precede shifts in the probability distributions of extreme values of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, the location of storm tracks, and the local likelihood of mid-latitude storms. Our observations suggest that these stratospheric harbingers may be used as a predictor of tropospheric weather regimes.
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            Propagation of planetary-scale disturbances from the lower into the upper atmosphere

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              A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part I: Climatology and Modeling Benchmarks

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
                J. Atmos. Sci.
                American Meteorological Society
                0022-4928
                1520-0469
                August 2012
                August 2012
                : 69
                : 8
                : 2608-2618
                Article
                10.1175/JAS-D-12-021.1
                © 2012

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