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      Consensus and uncertainty in the geographic range of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the contiguous United States: Multi-model assessment and synthesis

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          Abstract

          Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) mosquitoes can transmit dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. Limited surveillance has led to uncertainty regarding the geographic ranges of these vectors globally, and particularly in regions at the present-day margins of habitat suitability such as the contiguous United States. Empirical habitat suitability models based on environmental conditions can augment surveillance gaps to describe the estimated potential species ranges, but model accuracy is unclear. We identified previously published regional and global habitat suitability models for Ae. aegypti (n = 6) and Ae. albopictus (n = 8) for which adequate information was available to reproduce the models for the contiguous U.S. Using a training subset of recently updated county-level surveillance records of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and records of counties conducting surveillance, we constructed accuracy-weighted, probabilistic ensemble models from these base models. To assess accuracy and uncertainty we compared individual and ensemble model predictions of species presence or absence to both training and testing data. The ensemble models were among the most accurate and also provided calibrated probabilities of presence for each species. The quantitative probabilistic framework enabled identification of areas with high uncertainty and model bias across the U.S. where improved models or additional data could be most beneficial. The results may be of immediate utility for counties considering surveillance and control programs for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Moreover, the assessment framework can drive future efforts to provide validated quantitative estimates to support these programs at local, national, and international scales.

          Author summary

          Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes can transmit dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses, yet because of limited data the edges of the geographic range of these important species remain uncertain. We assessed numerous previously published model-based estimates of the range of these mosquitoes in the United States and combined those models to produce calibrated estimates of the probability of finding each mosquito in each county. Comparing these estimates to county-level data, we found that there are areas of substantial uncertainty and specific areas where model-based predictions do not align well with available data. The results provide specific information that can help guide national- or state-level efforts to monitor and control Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Beyond the specific findings, this approach to leveraging limited data and multiple quantitative models can be employed in other settings to better characterize the distribution of these species and other medically important vectors globally.

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          Most cited references44

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          Spread of the tiger: global risk of invasion by the mosquito Aedes albopictus.

          Aedes albopictus, commonly known as the Asian tiger mosquito, is currently the most invasive mosquito in the world. It is of medical importance due to its aggressive daytime human-biting behavior and ability to vector many viruses, including dengue, LaCrosse, and West Nile. Invasions into new areas of its potential range are often initiated through the transportation of eggs via the international trade in used tires. We use a genetic algorithm, Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production (GARP), to determine the ecological niche of Ae. albopictus and predict a global ecological risk map for the continued spread of the species. We combine this analysis with risk due to importation of tires from infested countries and their proximity to countries that have already been invaded to develop a list of countries most at risk for future introductions and establishments. Methods used here have potential for predicting risks of future invasions of vectors or pathogens.
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            The GARP modelling system: problems and solutions to automated spatial prediction

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              On the shape of a set of points in the plane

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS Comput Biol
                PLoS Comput. Biol
                plos
                ploscomp
                PLoS Computational Biology
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1553-734X
                1553-7358
                10 October 2019
                October 2019
                : 15
                : 10
                : e1007369
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Research Computing, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
                [2 ] Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
                [3 ] Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
                Yale School of Public Health, UNITED STATES
                Author notes

                The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5090-7722
                Article
                PCOMPBIOL-D-19-00607
                10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007369
                6786520
                31600194
                7a0bcc4d-9bdc-4145-88b8-170c1ad10197

                This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.

                History
                : 12 April 2019
                : 2 September 2019
                Page count
                Figures: 6, Tables: 2, Pages: 19
                Funding
                This work was supported by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Infectious Diseases
                Disease Vectors
                Insect Vectors
                Mosquitoes
                Aedes Aegypti
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Species Interactions
                Disease Vectors
                Insect Vectors
                Mosquitoes
                Aedes Aegypti
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Organisms
                Eukaryota
                Animals
                Invertebrates
                Arthropoda
                Insects
                Mosquitoes
                Aedes Aegypti
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Infectious Diseases
                Disease Vectors
                Insect Vectors
                Mosquitoes
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Species Interactions
                Disease Vectors
                Insect Vectors
                Mosquitoes
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Organisms
                Eukaryota
                Animals
                Invertebrates
                Arthropoda
                Insects
                Mosquitoes
                Biology and life sciences
                Organisms
                Viruses
                RNA viruses
                Togaviruses
                Alphaviruses
                Chikungunya Virus
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Microbiology
                Medical Microbiology
                Microbial Pathogens
                Viral Pathogens
                Togaviruses
                Alphaviruses
                Chikungunya Virus
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Pathology and Laboratory Medicine
                Pathogens
                Microbial Pathogens
                Viral Pathogens
                Togaviruses
                Alphaviruses
                Chikungunya Virus
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Organisms
                Viruses
                Viral Pathogens
                Togaviruses
                Alphaviruses
                Chikungunya Virus
                Biology and life sciences
                Organisms
                Viruses
                RNA viruses
                Flaviviruses
                Dengue Virus
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Microbiology
                Medical Microbiology
                Microbial Pathogens
                Viral Pathogens
                Flaviviruses
                Dengue Virus
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Pathology and Laboratory Medicine
                Pathogens
                Microbial Pathogens
                Viral Pathogens
                Flaviviruses
                Dengue Virus
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Organisms
                Viruses
                Viral Pathogens
                Flaviviruses
                Dengue Virus
                People and places
                Geographical locations
                North America
                United States
                Texas
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Infectious Diseases
                Viral Diseases
                Yellow Fever
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Species Colonization
                Invasive Species
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Tropical Diseases
                Neglected Tropical Diseases
                Dengue Fever
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Infectious Diseases
                Viral Diseases
                Dengue Fever
                Custom metadata
                The mosquito record data are available from the cited publications. Data on county-level presence/absence classification estimates produced here are available as Supporting Information.

                Quantitative & Systems biology
                Quantitative & Systems biology

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