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      Trends in disease burden of hepatitis B infection in Jiangsu Province, China, 1990–2021


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          The incidence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) has decreased year by year in China after the expansion of vaccination, but there is still a high disease burden in Jiangsu Province of China.


          The year-by-year incidence data of HBV in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2021 were collected. The incidence rates of males and females age groups were clustered by systematic clustering, and the incidence rates of each age group were analyzed and studied by using Joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort effect model (APC).


          Joinpoint regression model and APC model showed a general decrease in HBV prevalence in both males and females. In addition, the results of the APC model showed that the age, period, and cohort effects of patients all affected the incidence of HBV, and the incidence was higher in males than in females. The incidence is highest in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years (mean: 21.76/100,000), especially in males (mean: 31.53/100,000) than in females (mean:11.67/100,000). Another high-risk group is those over 60 years of age (mean: 21.40/100,000), especially males (mean: 31.17/100,000) than females (mean: 11.63/100,000). The period effect of the APC model suggests that HBV vaccination is effective in reducing the incidence of HBV in the population.


          The incidence of HBV in Jiangsu Province showed a gradual downward trend, but the disease burden in males was higher than that in females. The incidence is higher and increasing rapidly in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years and people over 60 years of age. More targeted prevention and control measures should be implemented for males and the elderly.

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          Most cited references28

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          Worldwide epidemiology of HBV infection, disease burden, and vaccine prevention.

          D Lavanchy (2005)
          Worldwide, hepatitis B virus (HBV) is the most common among those hepatitis viruses that cause chronic infections of the liver in humans, and it represents a global public health problem. Chronic hepatitis caused by HBV is the major cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide, and remains therefore a major public health problem globally. This fact is related to both the continuing occurrence of frequent new infections and to the presence of a large reservoir of persons chronically infected, which may develop severe and fatal complications of chronic liver disease. Hepatitis B and all of the complications resulting from it, as well hepatitis D (HDV) and its complications, are globally preventable by hepatitis B vaccination, and therefore elimination of HBV transmission and of new acute and chronic infections is a feasible goal.
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            Time Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Across the BRICS: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Key Nations With Emerging Economies Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

            Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) are emerging economies making up almost half the global population. We analyzed trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality across the BRICS and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. Mortality estimates were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. We used age-period-cohort modeling to estimate cohort and period effects in CVD between 1992 and 2016. Period was defined as survey year, and period effects reflect population-wide exposure at a circumscribed point in time. Cohort effects are defined as differences in risks across birth cohort. Net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks were calculated. In 2016, there were 8.4 million CVD deaths across the BRICS. Between 1992 and 2016, the reduction in CVD age-standardized mortality rate in BRICS (−17%) was less than in North America (−39%). Eighty-eight percent of the increased number of all-cause deaths resulted from the increase in CVD deaths. The age-standardized mortality rate from stroke and hypertensive heart disease declined by approximately one-third across the BRICS, whereas ischemic heart disease increased slightly (2%). Brazil had the largest age-standardized mortality rate reductions across all CVD categories, with improvement both over time and in recent birth cohorts. South Africa was the only country where the CVD age-standardized mortality rate increased. Different age-related CVD mortality was seen in those ≥50 years of age in China, ≤40 years of age in Russia, 35 to 60 years of age in India, and ≥55 years of age in South Africa. Improving period and cohort risks for CVD mortality were generally found across countries, except for worsening period effects in India and greater risks for ischemic heart disease in Chinese cohorts born in the 1950s and 1960s. Except for Brazil, reductions of CVD mortality across the BRICS have been less than that in North America, such that China, India, and South Africa contribute an increasing proportion of global CVD deaths. Brazil’s example suggests that prevention policies can both reduce the risks for younger birth cohorts and shift the risks for all age groups over time.
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              Efficacy and safety of antiviral prophylaxis during pregnancy to prevent mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus: a systematic review and meta-analysis


                Author and article information

                Infect Dis Model
                Infect Dis Model
                Infectious Disease Modelling
                KeAi Publishing
                10 July 2023
                September 2023
                10 July 2023
                : 8
                : 3
                : 832-841
                [a ]State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, 361102, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China
                [b ]Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing City, People's Republic of China
                Author notes
                []Corresponding author. State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an District, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China. chentianmu@ 123456xmu.edu.cn 13698665@ 123456qq.com
                [∗∗ ]Corresponding author. Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention No.172 Jiangsu Road, Nanjing City, Jiangsu province, People's Republic of China. jscdc-hjl@ 123456qq.com

                These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.


                These authors contributed equally to this study.

                © 2023 The Authors

                This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

                : 6 April 2023
                : 3 July 2023
                : 9 July 2023

                hbv,joinpoint regression model,age-period-cohort model,systematic clustering


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