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      The Not-So-Simple Calculus of Winning: Potential U.S. House Candidates' Nomination and General Election Prospects

      Author(s): ,
      Publication date Created:
      Publication date (Print):
      Journal: The Journal of Politics
      Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell

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          Estimating Incumbency Advantage without Bias

          Gary King, Andrew Gelman (1990)
          Article 0 comments Cited 105 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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            Risk-Bearing and Progressive Ambition: The Case of Members of the United States House of Representatives

            David W. Rohde (1979)
            Article 0 comments Cited 83 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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              A Theory of Political Ambition: Career Choices and the Role of Structural Incentives

              Gordon Black (1972)
              Office-holders periodically face the problem of choosing among a set of career alternatives, and these alternatives customarily include the choice of dropping out of political life, or seeking reelection, or of choosing to seek higher office. This paper assumes that officeholders behave according to a rational calculus in making such choices, and that the main elements involved in the choice process include the probabilities and values attached by the candidate to his alternatives, and the investments required to obtain these alternatives. Political ambition, or the desire to seek higher office, is shown to develop as a product of the investments that politicians make in their political careers, and the investments are shown to be associated with the structural characteristics of community size and electoral competitiveness. The subjects of the research are 435 city councilmen from 89 cities of the San Francisco Bay Region, and the data include information derived from interviews with the councilmen and aggregate election data collected on each city.
              Article 0 comments Cited 79 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Title: The Journal of Politics
                Abbreviated Title: The Journal of Politics
                Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
                ISSN (Print): 0022-3816
                ISSN (Electronic): 1468-2508
                Publication date Created: November 2003
                Publication date (Print): November 2003
                Volume: 65
                Issue: 4
                Pages: 951-977
                Article
                DOI: 10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00120
                SO-VID: 7bfbc318-49b6-4231-bdcb-f02fcb6573a6
                Copyright © © 2003
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