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      Forecasting the Impacts of Silver and Bighead Carp on the Lake Erie Food Web

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          On the interrelationships between natural mortality, growth parameters, and mean environmental temperature in 175 fish stocks

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            “Sight-unseen” detection of rare aquatic species using environmental DNA

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              Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions.

              In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Transactions of the American Fisheries Society
                Transactions of the American Fisheries Society
                Informa UK Limited
                0002-8487
                1548-8659
                January 08 2016
                December 30 2015
                : 145
                : 1
                : 136-162
                Article
                10.1080/00028487.2015.1069211
                7ca4189b-fef5-4516-ade2-5cae4ded9040
                © 2015
                History

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