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      Combine performance, draft position and playing position are poor predictors of player career outcomes in the Australian Football League

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          Abstract

          Physical testing-based draft combines are undertaken across various sporting codes to inform talent selection. To determine the explanatory power of the Australian football league (AFL) draft combine, participants drafted between 1999–2016 ( n = 1488) were assessed. Testing performance, draft selection order and playing position, AFL matches played, AFL player ranking points and AFL player rating points were collected as career outcomes. Boosted regression tree analysis revealed that position and draft selection order were the most explanatory variables of career outcomes. Linear modelling based on testing results is able to explain 4% of matches played and 3% of in-game performance measures. Each individual combine test explained <2% of the matches played outcome. Draft selection order demonstrated mixed results for career outcomes relative to playing position. For instance, key forwards and draft selection order were observed as a slight negative relationship using the AFL Player Ranking points career outcome measure. These findings indicate that the AFL draft combine is a poor measure for informing talent selection, thus providing minimal utility for the practices investigated in this study.

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          Most cited references28

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          The neural basis of loss aversion in decision-making under risk.

          People typically exhibit greater sensitivity to losses than to equivalent gains when making decisions. We investigated neural correlates of loss aversion while individuals decided whether to accept or reject gambles that offered a 50/50 chance of gaining or losing money. A broad set of areas (including midbrain dopaminergic regions and their targets) showed increasing activity as potential gains increased. Potential losses were represented by decreasing activity in several of these same gain-sensitive areas. Finally, individual differences in behavioral loss aversion were predicted by a measure of neural loss aversion in several regions, including the ventral striatum and prefrontal cortex.
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            Talent and its development: An emergenic and epigenetic model.

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              Sunk Costs in the NBA: Why Draft Order Affects Playing Time and Survival in Professional Basketball

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: MethodologyRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: SupervisionRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                17 June 2020
                2020
                : 15
                : 6
                : e0234400
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Institute for Health and Sport ( iHES, ), Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia
                [2 ] Maribyrnong Sports Academy, Melbourne, Australia
                University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, UNITED STATES
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: No authors have competing interests.

                ‡ These authors also contributed equally to this work.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7007-1873
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2745-2969
                Article
                PONE-D-20-03189
                10.1371/journal.pone.0234400
                7299322
                32555713
                7d880772-d346-4dbd-b411-53830ded7d26
                © 2020 Gogos et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 3 February 2020
                : 24 May 2020
                Page count
                Figures: 7, Tables: 4, Pages: 15
                Funding
                This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant [number 71704070]; Ministry of Education for the Humanities and Social Sciences Research Young Fund on the West and Borderland Project [number 17XJC790002]; Guangdong Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant [number 2017A030313443]; National social science fund [number 17BJY061], Major program of National Social Science Fund [number 18zda004],and Program of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics under Grant [number Lzufe2018B-06].
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