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Letter to the editor

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Solar Energy

Elsevier BV

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      Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the Earth sciences.

      Verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible. This is because natural systems are never closed and because model results are always nonunique. Models can be confirmed by the demonstration of agreement between observation and prediction, but confirmation is inherently partial. Complete confirmation is logically precluded by the fallacy of affirming the consequent and by incomplete access to natural phenomena. Models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and their predictive value is always open to question. The primary value of models is heuristic.
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        Some Comments on the Evaluation of Model Performance

         Cort Willmott (1982)
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          Modeling daylight availability and irradiance components from direct and global irradiance

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            Author and article information

            Journal
            Solar Energy
            Solar Energy
            Elsevier BV
            0038092X
            June 1995
            June 1995
            : 54
            : 6
            : 441-445
            10.1016/0038-092X(95)00011-F
            © 1995

            http://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/

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