The Economics of Dead Zones: Causes, Impacts, Policy Challenges, and a Model of the Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone

Seasonal hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico has been linked to increased nitrogen fluxes from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya River Basins, though recent evidence shows that phosphorus also influences productivity in the Gulf. We developed a spatially explicit and structurally detailed SPARROW water-quality model that reveals important differences in the sources and transport processes that control nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) delivery to the Gulf. Our model simulations indicate that agricultural sources in the watersheds contribute more than 70% of the delivered N and P. However, corn and soybean cultivation is the largest contributor of N (52%), followed by atmospheric deposition sources (16%); whereas P originates primarily from animal manure on pasture and rangelands (37%), followed by corn and soybeans (25%), other crops (18%), and urban sources (12%). The fraction of in-stream P and N load delivered to the Gulf increases with stream size, but reservoir trapping of P causes large local- and regional-scale differences in delivery. Our results indicate the diversity of management approaches required to achieve efficient control of nutrient loads to the Gulf. These include recognition of important differences in the agricultural sources of N and P, the role of atmospheric N, attention to P sources downstream from reservoirs, and better control of both N and P in close proximity to large rivers.

Anthropogenic nutrient enrichment and physical characteristics result in low dissolved oxygen concentrations (hypoxia) in estuaries and semienclosed seas throughout the world. Published research indicates that within and near oxygen-depleted waters, finfish and mobile macroinvertebrates experience negative effects that range from mortality to altered trophic interactions. Chronic exposure to hypoxia and fluctuating oxygen concentrations impair reproduction, immune responses, and growth. We present an analysis of hypoxia, nitrogen loadings, and fisheries landings in 30 estuaries and semien-closed seas worldwide. Our results suggest that hypoxia does not typically reduce systemwide fisheries landings below what would be predicted from nitrogen loadings, except where raw sewage is released or particularly sensitive species lose critical habitat. A number of compensatory mechanisms limit the translation of local-scale effects of hypoxia to the scale of the whole system. Hypoxia is, however, a serious environmental challenge that should be considered in fisheries management strategies and be a direct target of environmental restoration.