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      COVID-19 and the case for global development

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      World Development
      Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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          Abstract

          COVID-19 accentuates the case for a global, rather than an international, development paradigm. The novel disease is a prime example of a development challenge for all countries, through the failure of public health as a global public good. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the falsity of any assumption that the global North has all the expertise and solutions to tackle global challenges, and has further highlighted the need for multi-directional learning and transformation in all countries towards a more sustainable and equitable world. We illustrate our argument for a global development paradigm by examining the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic across four themes: global value chains, digitalisation, debt, and climate change. We conclude that development studies must adapt to a very different context from when the field emerged in the mid-20 th century.

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          Most cited references14

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          Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement

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            Why inequality could spread COVID-19

            Pandemics rarely affect all people in a uniform way. The Black Death in the 14th century reduced the global population by a third, with the highest number of deaths observed among the poorest populations. 1 Densely populated with malnourished and overworked peasants, medieval Europe was a fertile breeding ground for the bubonic plague. Seven centuries on—with a global gross domestic product of almost US$100 trillion—is our world adequately resourced to prevent another pandemic? 2 Current evidence from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic would suggest otherwise. Estimates indicate that COVID-19 could cost the world more than $10 trillion, 3 although considerable uncertainty exists with regard to the reach of the virus and the efficacy of the policy response. For each percentage point reduction in the global economy, more than 10 million people are plunged into poverty worldwide. 3 Considering that the poorest populations are more likely to have chronic conditions, this puts them at higher risk of COVID-19-associated mortality. Since the pandemic has perpetuated an economic crisis, unemployment rates will rise substantially and weakened welfare safety nets further threaten health and social insecurity. Working should never come at the expense of an individual's health nor to public health. In the USA, instances of unexpected medical billings for uninsured patients treated for COVID-19 and carriers continuing to work for fear of redundancy have already been documented. 4 Despite employment safeguards recently being passed into law in some high-income countries, such as the UK and the USA, low-income groups are wary of these assurances since they have experience of long-standing difficulties navigating complex benefits systems, 4 and many workers (including the self-employed) can be omitted from such contingency plans. The implications of inadequate financial protections for low-wage workers are more evident in countries with higher levels of extreme poverty, such as India. In recent pandemics, such as the Middle East respiratory syndrome, doctors were vectors of disease transmission due to inadequate testing and personal protective equipment. 5 History seems to be repeating itself, with clinicians comprising more than a tenth of all COVID-19 cases in Spain and Italy. With a projected global shortage of 15 million health-care workers by 2030, governments have left essential personnel exposed in this time of need. Poor populations lacking access to health services in normal circumstances are left most vulnerable during times of crisis. Misinformation and miscommunication disproportionally affect individuals with less access to information channels, who are thus more likely to ignore government health warnings. 6 With the introduction of physical distancing measures, household internet coverage should be made ubiquitous. The inequitable response to COVID-19 is already evident. Healthy life expectancy and mortality rates have historically been markedly disproportionate between the richest and poorest populations. The full effects of COVID-19 are yet to be seen, while the disease begins to spread across the most fragile settings, including conflict zones, prisons, and refugee camps. As the global economy plunges deeper into an economic crisis and government bailout programmes continue to prioritise industry, scarce resources and funding allocation decisions must aim to reduce inequities rather than exacerbate them.
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              COVID-19 and the impact of social determinants of health

              The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the pathogen severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), originated in Wuhan, China, and has now spread internationally with over 4·3 million individuals infected and over 297 000 deaths as of May 14, 2020, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. While COVID-19 has been termed a great equaliser, necessitating physical distancing measures across the globe, it is increasingly demonstrable that social inequalities in health are profoundly, and unevenly, impacting COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Many social determinants of health—including poverty, physical environment (eg, smoke exposure, homelessness), and race or ethnicity—can have a considerable effect on COVID-19 outcomes. Homeless families are at higher risk of viral transmission because of crowded living spaces and scarce access to COVID-19 screening and testing facilities. 1 In a Boston study of 408 individuals residing in a shelter, 147 (36%) had a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. 2 Smoke exposure and smoking has been linked to adverse outcomes in COVID-19. 3 A systematic review found that current or former smokers were more likely to have severe COVID-19 symptoms than non-smokers (relative risk [RR] 1·4 [95% CI 0·98–2·00]) as well as an increased risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, or COVID-19-related mortality (RR 2·4, 1·43–4·04). 3 In the USA, the COVID-19 infection rate is three times higher in predominantly black counties than in predominantly white counties, and the mortality rate is six times higher. 4 In Chicago alone, over 50% of COVID-19 cases and almost 70% of COVID-19 fatalities are disproportionately within the black population, who make up only 30% of the overall Chicago population. 4 It is also poignant that physical distancing measures, which are necessary to prevent the spread of COVID-19, are substantially more difficult for those with adverse social determinants and might contribute to both short-term and long-term morbidity. School closures increase food insecurity for children living in poverty who participate in school lunch programmes. Malnutrition causes substantial risk to both the physical and mental health of these children, including lowering immune response, which has the potential to increase the risk of infectious disease transmission. 5 People or families who are homeless are at higher risk of infection during physical lockdowns especially if public spaces are closed, resulting in physical crowding that is thought to increase viral transmission and reduce access to care. 1 Being able to physically distance has been dubbed an issue of privilege that is simply not accessible in some communities. 4 The association of social inequalities and COVID-19 morbidity is further compounded in the context of underlying chronic respiratory conditions, such as asthma, where there is a possible additive, or even multiplicative, effect on COVID-19 morbidity. Several adverse social determinants that impact the risk of COVID-19 morbidity also increase asthma morbidity, including poverty, smoke exposure, and race or ethnicity. 6 Consistent associations have been noted between poverty, smoke exposure, and non-Hispanic black race and measures of asthma morbidity, including poorer asthma control and increased emergency department visits for asthma. 6 The interplay of social determinants, asthma, and COVID-19 might help explain the risk of COVID-19 morbidity imposed by asthma, such as the disproportionate hospitalisations for COVID-19 among adults with asthma living in the USA. 7 The CDC note asthma to be a risk factor for COVID-19 morbidity. 8 Data released from the CDC on hospitalisations in the USA in the month of March, 2020, notes that 12 (27%) of 44 patients aged 18–49 years who were hospitalised with COVID-19 had a history of asthma, 8 in those aged 50–64 years, asthma was present in 7 (13%) of 53 cases, and in those 65 years or older asthma was present in 8 (13%) of 62 cases. 8 The effect of social determinants of health and COVID-19 morbidity is perhaps underappreciated. 6 Yet, the great public health lesson is that for centuries pandemics disproportionately affect the poor and disadvantaged. 9 Additionally, mitigating social determinants—such as improved housing, reduced overcrowding, and improved nutrition—reduces the effect of infectious diseases, such as tuberculosis, even before the advent of effective medications. 10 It is projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will likely occur after this initial wave, necessitating ongoing planning over the next few years. Studies are required to measure the effect of COVID-19 on individuals with adverse social determinants and innovative approaches to management are required, and might be different from those of the broader population. The effect of physical distancing measures, particularly among individuals with chronic conditions facing adverse social circumstances, needs to be studied because adverse determinants and physical distancing measures could compound issues, such as asthma medication access and broader access to care. The long-term effect of school closures, among those facing adverse social circumstances, is also in need of study. Moving forward, as the lessons of COVID-19 are considered, social determinants of health must be included as part of pandemic research priorities, public health goals, and policy implementation. While the relationships between these variables needs elucidating, measures that affect adverse determinants, such as reducing smoke exposure, regular income support to low-income households, access to testing and shelter among the homeless, and improving health-care access in low-income neighbourhoods have the potential to dramatically reduce future pandemic morbidity and mortality, perhaps even more so among individuals with respiratory conditions such as asthma. 7 More broadly, the effects of COVID-19 have shed light on the broad disparities within our society and provides an opportunity to address those disparities moving forward. 6 © 2020 Jim West/Science Photo Library 2020 Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                World Dev
                World Dev
                World Development
                Published by Elsevier Ltd.
                0305-750X
                0305-750X
                20 June 2020
                20 June 2020
                : 105044
                Affiliations
                [a ]Global Development Institute, The University of Manchester, UK
                [b ]Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester, UK
                [c ]Department of Mechanical, Aerospace, and Civil Engineering, The University of Manchester, UK
                [d ]Department of Geography, The University of Manchester, UK
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author. johan.oldekop@ 123456manchester.ac.uk
                Article
                S0305-750X(20)30170-4 105044
                10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105044
                7305889
                32834371
                81331aff-fb9e-4c71-b2dd-0d73d309cc70
                © 2020 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                : 5 June 2020
                : 14 June 2020
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                Economic development
                Economic development

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