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      Incidence of thyroid dysfunction in an Iranian adult population: the predictor role of thyroid autoantibodies: results from a prospective population-based cohort study

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          The prevalence of thyroid dysfunction is high in Isfahan, an area of iodine sufficient in Iran. The aim of this study is to investigate the incidence of thyroid dysfunctions in adults of metropolitan Isfahan and to determine the role of thyroid autoantibodies.


          In a population-based cohort study in 2006–2011, we measured TSH, T4, T3, thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb), and thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) in 618 out of 2254 people who were euthyroid in 2006. The incidence rates per 1000 person-year (pr) were calculated. The odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated based on logistic regression to quantify the potential predictors of thyroid dysfunction. The receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis along with area under the curve (AUC) was used to determine the optimal cutoff values for baseline TPOAb and TgAb as predictors of thyroid dysfunction.


          Within a 6-year follow-up, the incidence rate of hypothyroidism was 3.3 in women and 2.1 in men while the incidence rate of hyperthyroidism was 3.8 in women and none in men per 1000 (person-year). A cutoff value of TPOAb at 38 IU/mL was obtained to differentiate the patients with hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism, with specificity of 0.75 and sensitivity of 0.76, and AUC (CI 95%) of 0.882 (0.743–1.02), P = 0.01 and 0.817 (0.600–1.035) P = 0.033, respectively. There is a statistically significant association of hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism with positive TPOAb [RR (CI 95%): 1.99 (1.27–3.13) and 2.20 (1.23–3.95), respectively].


          The incidence rate of thyroid dysfunction is high in Isfahan, and higher TPOAb concentration is its strong predictor.

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          Laboratory medicine practice guidelines. Laboratory support for the diagnosis and monitoring of thyroid disease.

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            Effect of iodine intake on thyroid diseases in China.

            Iodine is an essential component of thyroid hormones; either low or high intake may lead to thyroid disease. We observed an increase in the prevalence of overt hypothyroidism, subclinical hypothyroidism, and autoimmune thyroiditis with increasing iodine intake in China in cohorts from three regions with different levels of iodine intake: mildly deficient (median urinary iodine excretion, 84 microg per liter), more than adequate (median, 243 microg per liter), and excessive (median, 651 microg per liter). Participants enrolled in a baseline study in 1999, and during the five-year follow-up through 2004, we examined the effect of regional differences in iodine intake on the incidence of thyroid disease. Of the 3761 unselected subjects who were enrolled at baseline, 3018 (80.2 percent) participated in this follow-up study. Levels of thyroid hormones and thyroid autoantibodies in serum, and iodine in urine, were measured and B-mode ultrasonography of the thyroid was performed at baseline and follow-up. Among subjects with mildly deficient iodine intake, those with more than adequate intake, and those with excessive intake, the cumulative incidence of overt hypothyroidism was 0.2 percent, 0.5 percent, and 0.3 percent, respectively; that of subclinical hypothyroidism, 0.2 percent, 2.6 percent, and 2.9 percent, respectively; and that of autoimmune thyroiditis, 0.2 percent, 1.0 percent, and 1.3 percent, respectively. Among subjects with euthyroidism and antithyroid antibodies at baseline, the five-year incidence of elevated serum thyrotropin levels was greater among those with more than adequate or excessive iodine intake than among those with mildly deficient iodine intake. A baseline serum thyrotropin level of 1.0 to 1.9 mIU per liter was associated with the lowest subsequent incidence of abnormal thyroid function. More than adequate or excessive iodine intake may lead to hypothyroidism and autoimmune thyroiditis. Copyright 2006 Massachusetts Medical Society.
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              Prevalence of thyroid disease, thyroid dysfunction and thyroid peroxidase antibodies in a large, unselected population. The Health Study of Nord-Trondelag (HUNT).

              To examine the prevalence of thyroid disease and dysfunction including thyroid autoimmunity in Norway. All inhabitants 20 years and older (94009) in Nord-Trondelag were invited to participate in a health survey with a questionnaire and blood samples. The prevalence of former diagnosed hyperthyroidism was 2.5% in females and 0.6% in males, hypothyroidism 4.8% and 0.9%, and goitre 2.9% and 0.4% respectively. In both sexes the prevalence increased with age. In individuals without a history of thyroid disease the median, 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles for TSH (mU/l) were 1.80 and 0.49-5.70 for females and 1. 50 and 0.56-4.60 for males. The TSH values increased with age. When excluding individuals with positive thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb) (>200U/ml), the 97.5 percentiles dropped to 3.60 mU/l and 3. 40 mU/l respectively. The prevalence of pathological TSH values in females and males were TSH >/=10mU/l 0.90% and 0.37%; TSH 4.1-9. 9mU/l 5.1% and 3.7%; and TSH 200U/ml) was 13.9% in females and 2.8% in males. In females the lowest percentage (7.9%) of positive TPOAb was seen with TSH 0.2-1.9mU/l and increased both with lower and higher levels of TSH. The percentage of males with positive TPOAb was lower than in females in all TSH groups except for those with TSH>10mU/l (85% TPOAb positive). In spite of a high prevalence of recognised thyroid disease in the population a considerable number of inhabitants have undiagnosed thyroid dysfunction and also positive TPOAb.

                Author and article information

                +98-31- 33377664 , aminorroaya@med.mui.ac.ir
                Eur J Med Res
                Eur. J. Med. Res
                European Journal of Medical Research
                BioMed Central (London )
                21 June 2017
                21 June 2017
                : 22
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0001 1498 685X, GRID grid.411036.1, Isfahan Endocrine and Metabolism Research Center, , Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, ; Sedigheh Tahereh Research Complex, Khorram Street, Isfahan, 8187698191 Iran
                [2 ]Isfahan Endocrine and Metabolism Research Center, Isfahan, Iran
                [3 ]ISNI 0000 0001 1498 685X, GRID grid.411036.1, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, , Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, ; Isfahan, Iran
                © The Author(s) 2017

                Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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                © The Author(s) 2017


                hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism, incidence, tpo antibodies, iran, thyroid autoantibodies


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