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      Decelerating Mortality Rates in Older Ages and its Prospects through Lee-Carter Approach

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      PLoS ONE

      Public Library of Science

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          Abstract

          The present study attempts to study the age pattern mortality and prospects through Lee-Carter approach. The objectives of the study are to examine the trend of mortality decline and life expectancy. Contemporaneously, we have projected life expectancy up to 2025, projecting ASDR using Lee-Carter method. Life table aging rate (LAR) used to estimate the rate of mortality deceleration. Overtime, LAR increased and during recent decade it remained more or less unchanged. By age, LAR significant increased in the oldest of old. The slope is steepest in the oldest of old in the recent decade. The rates of mortality increased in oldest of old as the age group is more vulnerable to chronic disease and vulnerable to identifiable risk factors for virtually every disease, marked by senility. The analysis revealed that the level of mortality is not declining but rate of acceleration is declining and is further expected to decline. By the year 2025, the age specific death rates for the age group 5–9 and 10–14 will go below one per thousand.Life expectancy will attained as high as 73 and 79 years for male and female and is further expected to increase linearly. 71 percent of total female birth and 57 percent of total male birth will survive up to age 70+. Also the findings revealed that mortality rate is declining with constant rate up to age 70 and thereafter, the mortality rate accelerates and this holds true for both sexes.

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          Most cited references 14

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          Life table methods are developed for populations whose members differ in their endowment for longevity. Unlike standard methods, which ignore such heterogeneity, these methods use different calculations to construct cohort, period, and individual life tables. The results imply that standard methods overestimate current life expectancy and potential gains in life expectancy from health and safety interventions, while underestimating rates of individual aging, past progress in reducing mortality, and mortality differentials between pairs of populations. Calculations based on Swedish mortality data suggest that these errors may be important, especially in old age.
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              Age-associated changes in human epidermal cell renewal.

              Epidermal cell renewal was assessed nonintrusively in normal human volunteers by monitoring the disappearance of a fluorescent marker dye, dansyl chloride, from the skin surface. In young adults, stratum corneum transit time was approximately 20 days, whereas in older adults this was lengthened by more than 10 days. Because the number of horny cell layers does not change with age, these data indicate that the increased stratum corneum transit time was a reflection of diminished epidermal cell proliferation. Additional analysis indicated that the decline in epidermal cell renewal may not occur at a constant rate throughout the adult lifespan but, instead, remains relatively constant in the younger years and then begins to drop dramatically after age 50. This suggests that a linear-spline model rather than a simple linear model may be more appropriate for analyzing these results.
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                Author and article information

                Affiliations
                International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai, India
                Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Conceived and designed the experiments: AY SY. Performed the experiments: AY. Analyzed the data: AY. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: AY SY RK. Wrote the paper: AY SY RK.

                Contributors
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, USA )
                1932-6203
                2012
                6 December 2012
                : 7
                : 12
                23236414 3516525 PONE-D-12-20031 10.1371/journal.pone.0050941

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                Counts
                Pages: 9
                Funding
                No current external funding sources for this study.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Biology
                Anatomy and Physiology
                Physiological Processes
                Aging
                Computational Biology
                Population Modeling
                Developmental Biology
                Organism Development
                Aging
                Population Biology
                Epidemiology
                Epidemiology of Aging
                Life Course Epidemiology
                Population Metrics
                Death Rate
                Aging
                Population Modeling
                Mathematics
                Applied Mathematics
                Statistics
                Biostatistics
                Statistical Methods
                Medicine
                Anatomy and Physiology
                Physiological Processes
                Aging
                Clinical Research Design
                Statistical Methods
                Epidemiology
                Lifecourse Epidemiology
                Non-Clinical Medicine
                Health Care Policy
                Health Risk Analysis
                Health Statistics
                Public Health
                Social and Behavioral Sciences
                Sociology
                Demography
                Death Rate
                Life Expectancy

                Uncategorized

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