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Decelerating Mortality Rates in Older Ages and its Prospects through Lee-Carter Approach

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      The present study attempts to study the age pattern mortality and prospects through Lee-Carter approach. The objectives of the study are to examine the trend of mortality decline and life expectancy. Contemporaneously, we have projected life expectancy up to 2025, projecting ASDR using Lee-Carter method. Life table aging rate (LAR) used to estimate the rate of mortality deceleration. Overtime, LAR increased and during recent decade it remained more or less unchanged. By age, LAR significant increased in the oldest of old. The slope is steepest in the oldest of old in the recent decade. The rates of mortality increased in oldest of old as the age group is more vulnerable to chronic disease and vulnerable to identifiable risk factors for virtually every disease, marked by senility. The analysis revealed that the level of mortality is not declining but rate of acceleration is declining and is further expected to decline. By the year 2025, the age specific death rates for the age group 5–9 and 10–14 will go below one per thousand.Life expectancy will attained as high as 73 and 79 years for male and female and is further expected to increase linearly. 71 percent of total female birth and 57 percent of total male birth will survive up to age 70+. Also the findings revealed that mortality rate is declining with constant rate up to age 70 and thereafter, the mortality rate accelerates and this holds true for both sexes.

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      Most cited references 14

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          Epidermal cell renewal was assessed nonintrusively in normal human volunteers by monitoring the disappearance of a fluorescent marker dye, dansyl chloride, from the skin surface. In young adults, stratum corneum transit time was approximately 20 days, whereas in older adults this was lengthened by more than 10 days. Because the number of horny cell layers does not change with age, these data indicate that the increased stratum corneum transit time was a reflection of diminished epidermal cell proliferation. Additional analysis indicated that the decline in epidermal cell renewal may not occur at a constant rate throughout the adult lifespan but, instead, remains relatively constant in the younger years and then begins to drop dramatically after age 50. This suggests that a linear-spline model rather than a simple linear model may be more appropriate for analyzing these results.

            Author and article information

            International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai, India
            Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
            Author notes

            Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

            Conceived and designed the experiments: AY SY. Performed the experiments: AY. Analyzed the data: AY. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: AY SY RK. Wrote the paper: AY SY RK.

            Role: Editor
            PLoS One
            PLoS ONE
            PLoS ONE
            Public Library of Science (San Francisco, USA )
            6 December 2012
            : 7
            : 12

            This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

            Pages: 9
            No current external funding sources for this study.
            Research Article
            Anatomy and Physiology
            Physiological Processes
            Computational Biology
            Population Modeling
            Developmental Biology
            Organism Development
            Population Biology
            Epidemiology of Aging
            Life Course Epidemiology
            Population Metrics
            Death Rate
            Population Modeling
            Applied Mathematics
            Statistical Methods
            Anatomy and Physiology
            Physiological Processes
            Clinical Research Design
            Statistical Methods
            Lifecourse Epidemiology
            Non-Clinical Medicine
            Health Care Policy
            Health Risk Analysis
            Health Statistics
            Public Health
            Social and Behavioral Sciences
            Death Rate
            Life Expectancy



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