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      Projeção da mortalidade e internações hospitalares na rede pública de saúde atribuíveis à poluição atmosférica no Estado de São Paulo entre 2012 e 2030 Translated title: Forecasting of mortality and hospital admissions from public healthcare attributable to air pollution in State of São Paulo between 2011 and 2030 Translated title: Proyección de la mortalidad y las admisiones hospitalarias en la red pública de salud atribuibles a la contaminación atmosférica en el Estado de São Paulo entre 2011 y 2030

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          Abstract

          No Brasil, os padrões nacionais de qualidade do ar são da década de 1990, desatualizados em relação aos internacionais, o que dificulta um controle eficaz dos níveis de poluição e contribui para a continuidade de mortes e internações. A fim de quantificar o montante de desfechos desfavoráveis de saúde em decorrência da concentração de material particulado no Estado de São Paulo, esse trabalho tem como objetivo realizar projeções de mortes, internações e gastos com internações públicas atribuíveis à poluição atmosférica, para o período de 2012 a 2030. Para isso foram considerados distintos cenários de poluição por material particulado fino (MP2,5), tomando-se como referência o ano-base 2011. Os resultados mostram que, mantendo o mesmo nível de poluição observado em 2011, haverá um total de mais de 246 mil óbitos por todas as causas entre 2012 e 2030, cerca de 953 mil internações hospitalares públicas e um gasto público estimado em internações de mais de R\(1,6 bilhão. A magnitude dos resultados aponta para a necessidade de implementação de medidas mais rigorosas para o controle da poluição do ar, formas alternativas de energia limpa de transporte, entre outras ações, como forma de reduzir os danos à saúde da população e os gastos governamentais.

          Translated abstract

          Abstract National air quality standards in Brazil were established in the 1990s and are now outdated in relation to international patterns. This creates a challenge for effective control of air pollution levels and contributes to increasing mortality and hospital admissions rates. In order to quantify the impact of adverse health outcomes due to the concentration of particulate matter in São Paulo, this paper aims to project the number of deaths, hospitalizations and amounts spent on public hospital admissions from 2012 to 2030. It considers distinct scenarios of air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5), using the year 2011 as baseline. The results show that if air pollution continues at the current levels, it will cause more than 246 thousand deaths from all causes between 2011 and 2030, as well as some 953 thousand hospital admissions and an estimated public health cost of R\) 1.6 billion due to hospitalizations. The magnitude of these results demonstrates the need to implement more rigorous measures to control air pollution and to encourage clean energy transportation, among other public actions, in order to reduce damage to the health of the population and to diminish government spending.

          Translated abstract

          Resumen En Brasil, los estándares nacionales de calidad del aire datan de la década de 1990, es decir, están obsoletos en comparación con las normas internacionales, lo que dificulta un control eficaz de los niveles de contaminación y contribuye a la continuidad de las muertes y hospitalizaciones ocasionadas por esta razón. Con el fin de cuantificar el total de los resultados adversos para la salud debidas a la concentración de material particulado en el Estado de São Paulo, este trabajo tiene como objetivo realizar proyecciones de muertes, hospitalizaciones y gastos por internaciones en hospitales públicos atribuibles a la polución atmosférica en el período comprendido entre 2012 y 2030. Para ello se han considerado distintos escenarios de contaminación por material particulado fino (MP2,5), tomando como referencia el año base 2011. Los resultados muestran que, manteniendo el mismo nivel de contaminación observado en esa fecha, habrá un total de más de 246.000 muertes por todas las causas entre 2011 y 2030, alrededor de 953.000 ingresos hospitalarios en el sistema público de salud y un gasto público por internaciones estimado en más de R$ 1,6 billones. La magnitud de los resultados pone en evidencia la necesidad de implementar medidas más rigurosas para el control de la contaminación del aire, formas alternativas de transporte con energía limpia, entre otras acciones, con el fin de reducir los daños a la salud de la población y los gastos del gobierno.

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          Most cited references47

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          Cardiovascular mortality and long-term exposure to particulate air pollution: epidemiological evidence of general pathophysiological pathways of disease.

          Epidemiologic studies have linked long-term exposure to fine particulate matter air pollution (PM) to broad cause-of-death mortality. Associations with specific cardiopulmonary diseases might be useful in exploring potential mechanistic pathways linking exposure and mortality. General pathophysiological pathways linking long-term PM exposure with mortality and expected patterns of PM mortality with specific causes of death were proposed a priori. Vital status, risk factor, and cause-of-death data, collected by the American Cancer Society as part of the Cancer Prevention II study, were linked with air pollution data from United States metropolitan areas. Cox Proportional Hazard regression models were used to estimate PM-mortality associations with specific causes of death. Long-term PM exposures were most strongly associated with mortality attributable to ischemic heart disease, dysrhythmias, heart failure, and cardiac arrest. For these cardiovascular causes of death, a 10-microg/m3 elevation in fine PM was associated with 8% to 18% increases in mortality risk, with comparable or larger risks being observed for smokers relative to nonsmokers. Mortality attributable to respiratory disease had relatively weak associations. Fine particulate air pollution is a risk factor for cause-specific cardiovascular disease mortality via mechanisms that likely include pulmonary and systemic inflammation, accelerated atherosclerosis, and altered cardiac autonomic function. Although smoking is a much larger risk factor for cardiovascular disease mortality, exposure to fine PM imposes additional effects that seem to be at least additive to if not synergistic with smoking.
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            Air pollution and lung cancer incidence in 17 European cohorts: prospective analyses from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE).

            Ambient air pollution is suspected to cause lung cancer. We aimed to assess the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and lung cancer incidence in European populations. This prospective analysis of data obtained by the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects used data from 17 cohort studies based in nine European countries. Baseline addresses were geocoded and we assessed air pollution by land-use regression models for particulate matter (PM) with diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10), less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5), and between 2·5 and 10 μm (PMcoarse), soot (PM2·5absorbance), nitrogen oxides, and two traffic indicators. We used Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders for cohort-specific analyses and random effects models for meta-analyses. The 312 944 cohort members contributed 4 013 131 person-years at risk. During follow-up (mean 12·8 years), 2095 incident lung cancer cases were diagnosed. The meta-analyses showed a statistically significant association between risk for lung cancer and PM10 (hazard ratio [HR] 1·22 [95% CI 1·03-1·45] per 10 μg/m(3)). For PM2·5 the HR was 1·18 (0·96-1·46) per 5 μg/m(3). The same increments of PM10 and PM2·5 were associated with HRs for adenocarcinomas of the lung of 1·51 (1·10-2·08) and 1·55 (1·05-2·29), respectively. An increase in road traffic of 4000 vehicle-km per day within 100 m of the residence was associated with an HR for lung cancer of 1·09 (0·99-1·21). The results showed no association between lung cancer and nitrogen oxides concentration (HR 1·01 [0·95-1·07] per 20 μg/m(3)) or traffic intensity on the nearest street (HR 1·00 [0·97-1·04] per 5000 vehicles per day). Particulate matter air pollution contributes to lung cancer incidence in Europe. European Community's Seventh Framework Programme. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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              Particulate air pollution as a predictor of mortality in a prospective study of U.S. adults.

              Time-series, cross-sectional, and prospective cohort studies have observed associations between mortality and particulate air pollution but have been limited by ecologic design or small number of subjects or study areas. The present study evaluates effects of particulate air pollution on mortality using data from a large cohort drawn from many study areas. We linked ambient air pollution data from 151 U.S. metropolitan areas in 1980 with individual risk factor on 552,138 adults who resided in these areas when enrolled in a prospective study in 1982. Deaths were ascertained through December, 1989. Exposure to sulfate and fine particulate air pollution, which is primarily from fossil fuel combustion, was estimated from national data bases. The relationships of air pollution to all-cause, lung cancer, and cardiopulmonary mortality was examined using multivariate analysis which controlled for smoking, education, and other risk factors. Although small compared with cigarette smoking, an association between mortality and particulate air pollution was observed. Adjusted relative risk ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) of all-cause mortality for the most polluted areas compared with the least polluted equaled 1.15 (1.09 to 1.22) and 1.17 (1.09 to 1.26) when using sulfate and fine particulate measures respectively. Particulate air pollution was associated with cardiopulmonary and lung cancer mortality but not with mortality due to other causes. Increased mortality is associated with sulfate and fine particulate air pollution at levels commonly found in U.S. cities. The increase in risk is not attributable to tobacco smoking, although other unmeasured correlates of pollution cannot be excluded with certainty.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Journal
                rbepop
                Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População
                Rev. bras. estud. popul.
                Associação Brasileira de Estudos Populacionais (São Paulo )
                0102-3098
                December 2015
                : 32
                : 3
                : 489-509
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Instituto Saúde e Sustentabilidade Brazil
                [2 ] Universidade de São Paulo Brazil
                [3 ] Universidade de São Paulo Brazil
                Article
                S0102-30982015000300489
                10.1590/S0102-3098201500000029
                8232ae17-20fd-4a7b-bfb3-3472cdb16330

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                Product

                SciELO Brazil

                Self URI (journal page): http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_serial&pid=0102-3098&lng=en
                Categories
                DEMOGRAPHY

                General social science
                Air pollution,Public health,Sao Paulo State,Particulate matter,Contaminación del aire,Salud pública,Estado de São Paulo,Material particulado,Poluição do ar,Saúde pública

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