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      Assessment tools for unrecognized myocardial infarction: a cross-sectional analysis of the REasons for geographic and racial differences in stroke population

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          Abstract

          Background

          Routine electrocardiograms (ECGs) are not recommended for asymptomatic patients because the potential harms are thought to outweigh any benefits. Assessment tools to identify high risk individuals may improve the harm versus benefit profile of screening ECGs. In particular, people with unrecognized myocardial infarction (UMI) have elevated risk for cardiovascular events and death.

          Methods

          Using logistic regression, we developed a basic assessment tool among 16,653 participants in the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study using demographics, self-reported medical history, blood pressure, and body mass index and an expanded assessment tool using information on 51 potential variables. UMI was defined as electrocardiogram evidence of myocardial infarction without a self-reported history (n = 740).

          Results

          The basic assessment tool had a c-statistic of 0.638 (95% confidence interval 0.617 - 0.659) and included age, race, smoking status, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, and self-reported history of transient ischemic attack, deep vein thrombosis, falls, diabetes, and hypertension. A predicted probability of UMI > 3% provided a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 30%. The expanded assessment tool had a c-statistic of 0.654 (95% confidence interval 0.634-0.674). Because of the poor performance of these assessment tools, external validation was not pursued.

          Conclusions

          Despite examining a large number of potential correlates of UMI, the assessment tools did not provide a high level of discrimination. These data suggest defining groups with high prevalence of UMI for targeted screening will be difficult.

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          Most cited references 13

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          Concurrent and predictive validity of a self-reported measure of medication adherence.

          Adherence to the medical regimen continues to rank as a major clinical problem in the management of patients with essential hypertension, as in other conditions treated with drugs and life-style modification. This article reviews the psychometric properties and tests the concurrent and predictive validity of a structured four-item self-reported adherence measure (alpha reliability = 0.61), which can be easily integrated into the medical visit. Items in the scale address barriers to medication-taking and permit the health care provider to reinforce positive adherence behaviors. Data on patient adherence to the medical regimen were collected at the end of a formalized 18-month educational program. Blood pressure measurements were recorded throughout a 3-year follow-up period. Results showed the scale to demonstrate both concurrent and predictive validity with regard to blood pressure control at 2 years and 5 years, respectively. Seventy-five percent of the patients who scored high on the four-item scale at year 2 had their blood pressure under adequate control at year 5, compared with 47% under control at year 5 for those patients scoring low (P less than 0.01).
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            Validation of the Framingham coronary heart disease prediction scores: results of a multiple ethnic groups investigation.

            The Framingham Heart Study produced sex-specific coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction functions for assessing risk of developing incident CHD in a white middle-class population. Concern exists regarding whether these functions can be generalized to other populations. To test the validity and transportability of the Framingham CHD prediction functions per a National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute workshop organized for this purpose. Sex-specific CHD functions were derived from Framingham data for prediction of coronary death and myocardial infarction. These functions were applied to 6 prospectively studied, ethnically diverse cohorts (n = 23 424), including whites, blacks, Native Americans, Japanese American men, and Hispanic men: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (1987-1988), Physicians' Health Study (1982), Honolulu Heart Program (1980-1982), Puerto Rico Heart Health Program (1965-1968), Strong Heart Study (1989-1991), and Cardiovascular Health Study (1989-1990). The performance, or ability to accurately predict CHD risk, of the Framingham functions compared with the performance of risk functions developed specifically from the individual cohorts' data. Comparisons included evaluation of the equality of relative risks for standard CHD risk factors, discrimination, and calibration. For white men and women and for black men and women the Framingham functions performed reasonably well for prediction of CHD events within 5 years of follow-up. Among Japanese American and Hispanic men and Native American women, the Framingham functions systematically overestimated the risk of 5-year CHD events. After recalibration, taking into account different prevalences of risk factors and underlying rates of developing CHD, the Framingham functions worked well in these populations. The sex-specific Framingham CHD prediction functions perform well among whites and blacks in different settings and can be applied to other ethnic groups after recalibration for differing prevalences of risk factors and underlying rates of CHD events.
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              ACC/AHA guidelines for the management of patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction; A report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines (Committee to Revise the 1999 Guidelines for the Management of patients with acute myocardial infarction).

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                BMC Cardiovasc Disord
                BMC Cardiovasc Disord
                BMC Cardiovascular Disorders
                BioMed Central
                1471-2261
                2013
                26 March 2013
                : 13
                : 23
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Epidemiology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
                [2 ]Division of Preventive Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
                [3 ]Department of Healthcare Organization and Policy, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
                [4 ]Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston Salem, NC, USA
                [5 ]Department of Biostatistics, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
                Article
                1471-2261-13-23
                10.1186/1471-2261-13-23
                3617994
                23530553
                Copyright ©2013 Levitan et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

                This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                Categories
                Research Article

                Cardiovascular Medicine

                electrocardiography, myocardial infarction, screening

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