Utility of the NECPAL CCOMS-ICO© tool and the Surprise Question as screening tools for early palliative care and to predict mortality in patients with advanced chronic conditions: A cohort study

Although accurate prediction of survival is essential for palliative care, few clinical methods of determining how long a patient is likely to live have been established. To develop a validated scoring system for survival prediction, a retrospective cohort study was performed with a training-testing procedure on two independent series of terminally ill cancer patients. Performance status (PS) and clinical symptoms were assessed prospectively. In the training set (355 assessments on 150 patients) the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) was defined by PS, oral intake, edema, dyspnea at rest, and delirium. In the testing sample (233 assessments on 95 patients) the predictive values of this scoring system were examined. In the testing set, patients were classified into three groups: group A (PPI 4.0). Group B survived significantly longer than group C, and group A survived significantly longer than either of the others. Also, when a PPI of more than 6 was adopted as a cut-off point, 3 weeks' survival was predicted with a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 85%. When a PPI of more than 4 was used as a cutoff point, 6 weeks' survival was predicted with a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 77%. In conclusion, whether patients live longer than 3 or 6 weeks can be acceptably predicted by PPI.

Prognostic information is rarely conveyed by nephrologists because of clinical uncertainty about accuracy. The objective of this study was to develop an integrated prognostic model of 6-mo survival for patients who receive hemodialysis (HD). A short-term prognostic model was developed using prospective data from a derivation cohort of 512 patients who were receiving HD at five dialysis clinics. Patient charts were reviewed for actuarial predictors (e.g., Charlson Comorbidity), and nephrologists answered the "surprise" question (SQ), "Would I be surprised if this patient died within the next 6 mo?" Survival was monitored for up to 24 mo. The prognostic model was tested with a validation cohort of 514 patients from eight clinics. In a Cox multivariate analysis of the derivation cohort, five variables were independently associated with early mortality: Older age (hazard ratio [HR] for a 10-yr increase 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.17 to 1.57), dementia (HR 2.24; 95% CI 1.11 to 4.48), peripheral vascular disease (HR 1.88; 95% CI 1.24 to 2.84), decreased albumin (HR for a 1-U increase 0.27; 95% CI 0.15 to 0.50), and SQ (HR 2.71; 95% CI 1.76 to 4.17). Area under the curve for the resulting prognostic model predictions of 6-mo mortality were 0.87 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.92) in the derivation cohort and 0.80 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.88) in the validation cohort. An integrated 6-mo prognostic tool was developed and validated for the HD population. The instrument may be of value for researchers and clinicians to improve end-of-life care by providing more accurate prognostic information.