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      Forecasting Models for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Survey of the State-of-the-Art

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          Abstract

          COVID-19 is a pandemic that has affected over 170 countries around the world. The number of infected and deceased patients has been increasing at an alarming rate in almost all the affected nations. Forecasting techniques can be inculcated thereby assisting in designing better strategies and in taking productive decisions. These techniques assess the situations of the past thereby enabling better predictions about the situation to occur in the future. These predictions might help to prepare against possible threats and consequences. Forecasting techniques play a very important role in yielding accurate predictions. This study categorizes forecasting techniques into two types, namely, stochastic theory mathematical models and data science/machine learning techniques. Data collected from various platforms also play a vital role in forecasting. In this study, two categories of datasets have been discussed, i.e., big data accessed from World Health Organization/National databases and data from a social media communication. Forecasting of a pandemic can be done based on various parameters such as the impact of environmental factors, incubation period, the impact of quarantine, age, gender and many more. These techniques and parameters used for forecasting are extensively studied in this work. However, forecasting techniques come with their own set of challenges (technical and generic). This study discusses these challenges and also provides a set of recommendations for the people who are currently fighting the global COVID-19 pandemic.

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          Most cited references 10

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          Is Open Access

          Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

          Background Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success criteria for different approaches. Methods We used the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to generate stochastic simulations of epidemic spread worldwide, yielding (among other measures) the incidence and seeding events at a daily resolution for 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. Using a Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis, the model provided an estimate of the seasonal transmission potential during the early phase of the H1N1 pandemic and generated ensemble forecasts for the activity peaks in the northern hemisphere in the fall/winter wave. These results were validated against the real-life surveillance data collected in 48 countries, and their robustness assessed by focusing on 1) the peak timing of the pandemic; 2) the level of spatial resolution allowed by the model; and 3) the clinical attack rate and the effectiveness of the vaccine. In addition, we studied the effect of data incompleteness on the prediction reliability. Results Real-time predictions of the peak timing are found to be in good agreement with the empirical data, showing strong robustness to data that may not be accessible in real time (such as pre-exposure immunity and adherence to vaccination campaigns), but that affect the predictions for the attack rates. The timing and spatial unfolding of the pandemic are critically sensitive to the level of mobility data integrated into the model. Conclusions Our results show that large-scale models can be used to provide valuable real-time forecasts of influenza spreading, but they require high-performance computing. The quality of the forecast depends on the level of data integration, thus stressing the need for high-quality data in population-based models, and of progressive updates of validated available empirical knowledge to inform these models.
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            Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

            Based on the official data modeling, this paper studies the transmission process of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The error between the model and the official data curve is quite small. At the same time, it realized forward prediction and backward inference of the epidemic situation, and the relevant analysis help relevant countries to make decisions.
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              Extended SIR Prediction of the Epidemics Trend of COVID-19 in Italy and Compared With Hunan, China

              Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently a global public health threat. Outside of China, Italy is one of the countries suffering the most with the COVID-19 epidemic. It is important to predict the epidemic trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy to help develop public health strategies. Methods: We used time-series data of COVID-19 from Jan 22 2020 to Apr 02 2020. An infectious disease dynamic extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model, which covers the effects of different intervention measures in dissimilar periods, was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Italy. The basic reproductive number was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CI). Hunan, with a similar total population number to Italy, was used as a comparative item. Results: In the eSIR model, we estimated that the mean of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 was 4.34 (95% CI, 3.04–6.00) in Italy and 3.16 (95% CI, 1.73–5.25) in Hunan. There would be a total of 182 051 infected cases (95%CI:116 114–274 378) under the current country blockade and the endpoint would be Aug 05 in Italy. Conclusion: Italy's current strict measures can efficaciously prevent the further spread of COVID-19 and should be maintained. Necessary strict public health measures should be implemented as soon as possible in other European countries with a high number of COVID-19 cases. The most effective strategy needs to be confirmed in further studies.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                gr83gita@gmail.com
                asmitakalamkar@gmail.com
                aalborg.pnm@gmail.com
                neelanjan.dey@gmail.com
                jyotismita.c@gmail.com
                aboitcairo@gmail.com
                Journal
                SN COMPUT. SCI.
                SN Computer Science
                Springer Singapore (Singapore )
                2662-995X
                2661-8907
                11 June 2020
                2020
                : 1
                : 4
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Computer Engineering, Smt. Kashibai Navale College of Engineering, Pune, Maharashtra India
                [2 ]GRID grid.5117.2, ISNI 0000 0001 0742 471X, Department of Communication, Media and Information Technologies, , Aalborg University, ; Copenhagen, Denmark
                [3 ]Department of Information Technology, Techno International New Town, Kolkata, India
                [4 ]GRID grid.412813.d, ISNI 0000 0001 0687 4946, School of Information Technology and Engineering, , Vellore Institute of Technology, ; Vellore, India
                [5 ]GRID grid.7776.1, ISNI 0000 0004 0639 9286, Faculty of Computers and Information, Information Technology Department, , Cairo University, ; Giza, Egypt
                Article
                209
                10.1007/s42979-020-00209-9
                7289234
                © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd 2020

                This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.

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                © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd 2020

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