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      Citizen science and niche modeling to track and forecast the expansion of the brown marmorated stinkbug Halyomorpha halys (Stål, 1855)

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          Abstract

          Halyomorpha halys (Stål, 1855), the Brown Marmorated StinkBug (BMSB) is a highly successful invasive species native to eastern Asia that managed to spread into North America and Europe in recent decades. We set up a citizen science survey to monitor BMSB expansion in France in 2012 and analyzed the data it yielded between 2012 and 2019 to examine the local expansion of the insect. These data were gathered with occurrences form various sources (GBIF, literature) to calibrate a species niche model and assess potential current BMSB range. We evaluated the potential changes to the BMSB range due to climate change by projecting the model according to 6 global circulation models (GCM) and the shared socio-economic pathways SSP245 in two time periods 2021–2040 and 2041–2060. Citizen science allowed to track BMSB expansion in France and provided information about its phenology and its habitat preferences. The model highlighted the potential for further range expansion in Europe and illustrated the impact of climate change. These results could help managing the current BMSB invasion and the framework of this survey could contribute to a better preparedness of phytosanitary authorities either for the BMSB or other invasive pests.

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Jean-Pierre.Rossi@inrae.fr
                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2045-2322
                1 June 2021
                1 June 2021
                2021
                : 11
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.434209.8, ISNI 0000 0001 2172 5332, UMR CBGP, INRAE, CIRAD, IRD, Montpellier SupAgro, ; Montpellier, France
                [2 ]GRID grid.503191.f, ISNI 0000 0001 0143 5055, MNHN, Direction Générale Des Collections, ; Paris, France
                [3 ]UMR SAVE INRAE Bordeaux Science Agro, ISVV, Bordeaux, France
                Article
                90378
                10.1038/s41598-021-90378-1
                8169697
                © The Author(s) 2021

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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                climate-change ecology, ecological modelling, environmental social sciences

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