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      Inferring Stop-Locations from WiFi

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      PLoS ONE
      Public Library of Science

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          Abstract

          Human mobility patterns are inherently complex. In terms of understanding these patterns, the process of converting raw data into series of stop-locations and transitions is an important first step which greatly reduces the volume of data, thus simplifying the subsequent analyses. Previous research into the mobility of individuals has focused on inferring ‘stop locations’ (places of stationarity) from GPS or CDR data, or on detection of state (static/active). In this paper we bridge the gap between the two approaches: we introduce methods for detecting both mobility state and stop-locations. In addition, our methods are based exclusively on WiFi data. We study two months of WiFi data collected every two minutes by a smartphone, and infer stop-locations in the form of labelled time-intervals. For this purpose, we investigate two algorithms, both of which scale to large datasets: a greedy approach to select the most important routers and one which uses a density-based clustering algorithm to detect router fingerprints. We validate our results using participants’ GPS data as well as ground truth data collected during a two month period.

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          Understanding individual human mobility patterns

          Despite their importance for urban planning, traffic forecasting, and the spread of biological and mobile viruses, our understanding of the basic laws governing human motion remains limited thanks to the lack of tools to monitor the time resolved location of individuals. Here we study the trajectory of 100,000 anonymized mobile phone users whose position is tracked for a six month period. We find that in contrast with the random trajectories predicted by the prevailing Levy flight and random walk models, human trajectories show a high degree of temporal and spatial regularity, each individual being characterized by a time independent characteristic length scale and a significant probability to return to a few highly frequented locations. After correcting for differences in travel distances and the inherent anisotropy of each trajectory, the individual travel patterns collapse into a single spatial probability distribution, indicating that despite the diversity of their travel history, humans follow simple reproducible patterns. This inherent similarity in travel patterns could impact all phenomena driven by human mobility, from epidemic prevention to emergency response, urban planning and agent based modeling.
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            Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks.

            Most mathematical models for the spread of disease use differential equations based on uniform mixing assumptions or ad hoc models for the contact process. Here we explore the use of dynamic bipartite graphs to model the physical contact patterns that result from movements of individuals between specific locations. The graphs are generated by large-scale individual-based urban traffic simulations built on actual census, land-use and population-mobility data. We find that the contact network among people is a strongly connected small-world-like graph with a well-defined scale for the degree distribution. However, the locations graph is scale-free, which allows highly efficient outbreak detection by placing sensors in the hubs of the locations network. Within this large-scale simulation framework, we then analyse the relative merits of several proposed mitigation strategies for smallpox spread. Our results suggest that outbreaks can be contained by a strategy of targeted vaccination combined with early detection without resorting to mass vaccination of a population.
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              Forecast and Control of Epidemics in a Globalized World

              The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which describes the worldwide spreading of infectious diseases and demonstrate that a forecast of the geographical spread of epidemics is indeed possible. It combines a stochastic local infection dynamics between individuals with stochastic transport in a worldwide network which takes into account the national and international civil aviation traffic. Our simulations of the SARS outbreak are in suprisingly good agreement with published case reports. We show that the high degree of predictability is caused by the strong heterogeneity of the network. Our model can be used to predict the worldwide spreading of future infectious diseases and to identify endangered regions in advance. The performance of different control strategies is analyzed and our simulations show that a quick and focused reaction is essential to inhibit the global spreading of epidemics.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                2016
                22 February 2016
                : 11
                : 2
                : e0149105
                Affiliations
                [001]DTU Compute, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
                Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, CHINA
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Conceived and designed the experiments: DKW PS MAF SL. Performed the experiments: MAF. Analyzed the data: DKW PS MAF. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: DKW PS SL. Wrote the paper: DKW PS SL.

                Article
                PONE-D-15-35684
                10.1371/journal.pone.0149105
                4763164
                26901663
                8498f850-9216-4b72-a50e-d3b28c47431e
                © 2016 Wind et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 23 August 2015
                : 27 January 2016
                Page count
                Figures: 9, Tables: 1, Pages: 15
                Funding
                This work was supported by Villum Foundation, http://villumfoundation.dk/C12576AB0041F11B/0/4F7615B6F43A8EA5C1257AEF003D9930?OpenDocument, Young Investigator programme 2012, High Resolution Networks (SL) and University of Copenhagen, http://dsin.ku.dk/news/ucph_funds/, through the UCPH2016 Social Fabric grant (SL). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Computer and Information Sciences
                Data Visualization
                Engineering and Technology
                Equipment
                Communication Equipment
                Cell Phones
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Behavior
                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Social Systems
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Epidemiology
                Social Epidemiology
                Computer and Information Sciences
                Network Analysis
                Social Networks
                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Social Networks
                Engineering and Technology
                Telecommunications
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Behavior
                Recreation
                Games
                Custom metadata
                Most of the data used in the paper is available at the following public repository: https://github.com/utdiscant/inferring-stop-locations-from-wifi. The data set contains anonymised WiFi-samples and ground truth stop locations. The data does not include supplementary GPS-locations of the subjects. Data are from Copenhagen Networks study ( http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0095978). Due to privacy consideration regarding subjects in our dataset, including European Union regulations and Danish Data Protection Agency rules, we cannot make all of our data publicly available. The data contains detailed information on mobility and daily habits of individuals at a high spatio-temporal resolution. We understand and appreciate the need for transparency in research and are ready to make the rest of the data available to researchers who meet the criteria for access to confidential data, sign a confidentiality agreement, and agree to work under our supervision in Copenhagen. Please direct your queries to Sune Lehmann, the Principal Investigator of the study, at sljo@ 123456dtu.dk.

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