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      Simplified climate modelling to size economic boundaries

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          Summary

          While presenting simplified quantifications on the natural climate (change) processes to enhance reproducibility and communication to the broader audience, the study results are unique in many respects.

          1. The few significant climate driving forces are described by simple functions, in outstanding agreement with paleo-reconstructions.
          2. Anthropogenic carbon emissions translate into atmospheric CO2 concentrations by a simple function as well.
          3. A temperature contribution is derived for the anthropogenic energy consumption (beyond the emissions impact).
          4. Atmospheric infrared absorption reveals near-proportionality to the absorbing molecule densities.
          5. Quantification is attempted on the vibrational-to-translational energy transfer as a major atmospheric absorption process.
          6. Emittance from atmospheric absorption is revealed to be composed of two components: one proportional to the absorbed irradiation, the other constant.
          7. The simple-function set on nature is applied to conclude on the future economic possibilities in a renewables world.

          Abstract

          Pencil-and-paper climate modelling is extracted from the comprehensive previous research on the inherently complex natural processes. A major goal is to mediate between general scientific knowledge and the wide-spread scepticism by identifying the driving forces, seeking simple descriptions, uncovering reproducibility, and thus contributing to transparency. The results of the shortcut model are in outstanding agreement with earlier measurement data and simulation studies. Two observations are fundamentally novel requiring scrutinization by the natural sciences community: (1) near-proportionality of atmospheric infrared absorption to particle densities and (2), temperature impact from human energy consumption. Independently, the presented framework allows for straightforward climate projections and risk assessment. As result, future economic growth is demanded to zero, even in a renewables (Green Growth) world.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          ScienceOpen Preprints
          ScienceOpen
          31 August 2020
          Affiliations
          [1 ] BHU Research
          Article
          10.14293/S2199-1006.1.SOR-.PPYDLMQ.v1

          This work has been published open access under Creative Commons Attribution License CC BY 4.0 , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Conditions, terms of use and publishing policy can be found at www.scienceopen.com .

          Funding
          No funding privided. No grant provided.

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