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      Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes.

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          Abstract

          Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However, observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation of model-projected changes in extreme precipitation. We used satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than that predicted by models, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          Science
          Science (New York, N.Y.)
          American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
          1095-9203
          0036-8075
          Sep 12 2008
          : 321
          : 5895
          Affiliations
          [1 ] Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, Berkshire RG6 6AL, UK. r.p.allan@reading.ac.uk
          Article
          1160787
          10.1126/science.1160787
          18687921
          85b5afe5-b440-412d-90f1-81f4bfc49a22
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