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      Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19

      1 , * , 2

      PLoS ONE

      Public Library of Science

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          Abstract

          What will be the global impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)? Answering this question requires accurate forecasting the spread of confirmed cases as well as analysis of the number of deaths and recoveries. Forecasting, however, requires ample historical data. At the same time, no prediction is certain as the future rarely repeats itself in the same way as the past. Moreover, forecasts are influenced by the reliability of the data, vested interests, and what variables are being predicted. Also, psychological factors play a significant role in how people perceive and react to the danger from the disease and the fear that it may affect them personally. This paper introduces an objective approach to predicting the continuation of the COVID-19 using a simple, but powerful method to do so. Assuming that the data used is reliable and that the future will continue to follow the past pattern of the disease, our forecasts suggest a continuing increase in the confirmed COVID-19 cases with sizable associated uncertainty. The risks are far from symmetric as underestimating its spread like a pandemic and not doing enough to contain it is much more severe than overspending and being over careful when it will not be needed. This paper describes the timeline of a live forecasting exercise with massive potential implications for planning and decision making and provides objective forecasts for the confirmed cases of COVID-19.

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          Most cited references 9

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          The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition

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            The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications

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              Responding to Covid-19 — A Once-in-a-Century Pandemic?

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                2020
                31 March 2020
                : 15
                : 3
                Affiliations
                [1 ] School of Management, University of Bath, Bath, United Kingdom
                [2 ] Institute for the Future (IFF), University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus
                Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, ARGENTINA
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Article
                PONE-D-20-05124
                10.1371/journal.pone.0231236
                7108716
                32231392
                © 2020 Petropoulos, Makridakis

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                Counts
                Figures: 3, Tables: 0, Pages: 8
                Product
                Funding
                The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Mathematical and Statistical Techniques
                Statistical Methods
                Forecasting
                Physical Sciences
                Mathematics
                Statistics
                Statistical Methods
                Forecasting
                People and Places
                Geographical Locations
                Asia
                China
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Infectious Diseases
                Viral Diseases
                SARS
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Neuroscience
                Cognitive Science
                Cognitive Psychology
                Decision Making
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Psychology
                Cognitive Psychology
                Decision Making
                Social Sciences
                Psychology
                Cognitive Psychology
                Decision Making
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Neuroscience
                Cognitive Science
                Cognition
                Decision Making
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Zoology
                Animal Diseases
                Animal Influenza
                Avian Influenza
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Infectious Diseases
                Zoonoses
                Avian Influenza
                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Communications
                Social Communication
                Social Media
                Computer and Information Sciences
                Network Analysis
                Social Networks
                Social Media
                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Social Networks
                Social Media
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Research Assessment
                Research Validity
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Psychology
                Emotions
                Fear
                Social Sciences
                Psychology
                Emotions
                Fear
                Custom metadata
                The data were retrieved by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 [accessed on 12/03/2020].
                COVID-19

                Uncategorized

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