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      Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory

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          Abstract

          China’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 relies on the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, with forestation targets designed to enhance carbon removal. However, the exact sequestration potential of these initiatives remains uncertain due to differing accounting conventions between national inventories and scientific assessments. Here, we reconcile both estimates and reassess LULUCF carbon fluxes up to 2100, using a spatially explicit bookkeeping model, state-of-the-art historical data, and national forestation targets. We simulate a carbon sink of −0.24 ± 0.03 Gt C yr −1 over 1994–2018 from past forestation efforts, aligned well with the national inventory. Should the official forestation targets be followed and extended, this could reach −0.35 ± 0.04 Gt C yr −1 in 2060, offsetting 43 ± 4% of anticipated residual fossil CO 2 emissions. Our findings confirm the key role of LULUCF in carbon sequestration, but its potential will decline if forestation efforts cease, highlighting the necessity for emission reductions in other sectors to achieve carbon neutrality.

          Abstract

          China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal relies on forestation to enhance carbon removal. This study reconciles national and scientific LULUCF carbon flux estimates, projecting that continued forestation could offset 43% of CO 2 emissions by 2060.

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          Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil's well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.
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            Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset

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              Natural climate solutions

              Significance Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize warming to below 2 °C. Alongside aggressive fossil fuel emissions reductions, NCS offer a powerful set of options for nations to deliver on the Paris Climate Agreement while improving soil productivity, cleaning our air and water, and maintaining biodiversity.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                slpiao@pku.edu.cn
                gasser@iiasa.ac.at
                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2041-1723
                30 November 2024
                30 November 2024
                2024
                : 15
                : 10426
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, ( https://ror.org/02v51f717) Beijing, China
                [2 ]International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), ( https://ror.org/02wfhk785) Laxenburg, Austria
                [3 ]Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), CEA CNRS UVSQ, ( https://ror.org/03dsd0g48) 91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7754-7026
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8057-2292
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647
                Article
                54846
                10.1038/s41467-024-54846-2
                11608317
                39616164
                86af47d4-abad-4754-9d09-35f038c60cca
                © The Author(s) 2024

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

                History
                : 31 May 2024
                : 21 November 2024
                Funding
                Funded by: This study was supported by the Horizon Europe research and innovation programme of the European Union, specifically the RESCUE project, grant agreement no. 101056939 (T.G.), and by the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme of the European Union, specifically the ESM2025—Earth System Models for the Future project, grant agreement no. 101003536 (T.G.).
                Categories
                Article
                Custom metadata
                © Springer Nature Limited 2024

                Uncategorized
                biogeochemistry,climate change
                Uncategorized
                biogeochemistry, climate change

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